I just applied ED to Holy Cross. It didn’t scare me too much as I was fairly sure, but I don’t think you can ever be 1000% when there is thousands of great schools. I don’t go to smith obviously so can’t help there. Maybe try on the decision for size. Like act like you applied ED to smith for a few days and see how the choice feels. If they don’t offer you enough aid, for what your family decides, you have the right to not accept the ED admission. Overall if you are really unsure don’t do it. Apply to a few great schools and I’m sure you will be fine. Your chances of getting into smith will obviously be less, but you can still get in and have a chance elsewhere as well.