If you’re in-state, apply and hope for the best. If out of state, consider if you would be able to afford Michigan if admitted (offers little to no financial aid or scholarships to out of state students IIRC, but check the website,) and then like an in-state application, apply widely (safeties, matches, and reaches) and hope for the best! 
Choose the school that fits the “story” your application’s trying to tell. If an Admissions Officer was to look at your essays, interview, extracurriculars, courses etc, would they show, not tell, your interest in x or y field? This is more important than the slight discrepancies between each school’s admissions rates, as Michigan as a whole is difficult to get into. Keep in mind that if you end up applying to a different school than the one you want to attend, there may be specific requirements or a competitive application process to transfer, if it’s allowed, so make sure you research that deeply beforehand.
Hope that helps!