semi-tryhard white guy applying to some very good schools, some decent ones (admission/aid chances?)

You need to know your budget. Talk to parents for a hard $ amount. Run the NPC for your schools to see if they fit. If not, move on.

You’ll probably get merit scholarships from schools just outside the T20 but will it be enough? NMSF might get you something. There are schools that give a lot to NM winners. Your story and stats are very similar to my S20 although he wasn’t NMSF. Most of his schools ended-up in the $40-50K range after merit (SMU, Fordham, Drexel, and Miami).

The good news is that you have USC. Good school. Columbia is the capital so there’s opportunities for poly sci internships. I did my MBA there many years ago. I was surprised how active and accepted the local LGBT community was which was not what I expected since SC is so conservative or so they said. Lol.