<p>I kind of do think that a less than 50% chance of admission is a reach. Certainly, a 30% chance of admission is not as much of a reach as a 5% chance–but you could apply to a bunch of 30% chance places and get into none of them.</p>
<p>And it’s really not quite accurate to talk about odds and chances, anyway. There is really no random element in the selection process–other than, perhaps, the makeup of the overall pool (and that isn’t really random, either–it’s just out of anyone’s control).</p>