Have you run the Net Price Calculators on the schools’ that use CSS profile?
I do think you should apply to Merced, simply because of what they might possibly offer you. And perhaps if M offers you a lot, then maybe UCR or UCSB or UCSC might offer you more as an incentive.
If you’re gunning for MD/PhD, then it would be more advantageous to be at a research univ…so one of the UCs.