I think your premise is wrong.
There are always kids who get into a school (a student not in my son’s top 25 (all they showed) goes to Princeton.
You should only worry about yourself - not others that you know.
Should you apply depends on two things:
- Do you want to attend
- Can you afford to attend or if not, do you have the possibility to afford (via merit or need aid)
If the answer to both is yes, then you should apply.
Now there should also be a sense of reality - if you have a 2.5 and are in the 50th percentile, applying to Harvard is a waste.
But you have 20 apps on common and no matter if you apply to 2 or 6 or 20, you’re only going to one school.
So of course you should apply - and you’re making judgements about admissions (how many they’ll take from your school) without any iota of knowledge about what the school will do related to you!!!
So stop that.
Apply where you want - and if you get turned down - oh well.
Kids get turned down every day. From super selective schools, most get turned down.
Then you choose one that accepts you.
Good luck.