Two factors make predicting college acceptance for 2026 particularly dicey:
- There will be fewer college applicants in 2026 because 2025 was the highest number in history. There will be fewer high school graduates in 2026, so the number of college applicants is expected to correspondingly also be fewer.
- Because of policies of the current administration, there are expected to be fewer international applicants.
With fewer applicants, the numbers you are referencing from last year’s application cycle can be expected to change, making your numbers likely more competitive in this year’s applicant pool. Georgetown’s acceptance rate was 13% last year. So, even if it should increase by 50% this year, it would still have to be considered a reach for anyone. So, let it be one of your reaches.
But those are just the numbers. They seem so objective and therefore we give them more weight than we probably should. As others in this thread have pointed out, you are an incredibly strong applicant - especially for the field in which you’re interested. When the Admissions Office looks at your numbers, they will be reassured that you’re more than capable of meeting the academic standards which are required to handle the work load. After that, they probably won’t care much about your numbers and will look at the rest of your application.
So, why would you even consider not applying? You have nothing to lose and everything to gain. As @tsbna44 has already said, “it’s not possible if you don’t apply.” And in the words of hockey immortal, Wayne Gretzky, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”