I agree with your conclusion. But would encourage everyone NOT to put too much weight into the narrative “there are fewer applicants so it’s going to be easier”, i.e. schools are going to go from mega reach to just a skootch of a reach.
The shrinking college aged population is likely going to impact Eastern CT State college (located away from the growing population in the state) or Albright or College of the Atlantic or small, private, tuition dependent institutions in rural areas well before it hits urban, well endowed places like Georgetown with a national presence. I’m seeing so much of the “I might as well apply to Princeton since application numbers are going down” posts on CC and while I’d never tell a HS kid “don’t bother”, reality suggests that the admissions stats are not likely to change meaningfully at the well financed, well endowed U’s.
OP- You sound like a fantastic person. You should apply knowing that a reach is a reach- and make sure you have other schools on your list that you are excited about.