<p>Pick the early reach you like the most. As long as you have a true safety you love, apply to as many matches and reaches you like and have time and money to apply to.</p>
<p>A note on purely theoretical odds: If you apply to 10 schools where you have a 50% chance of admission at each (impossible to know!), you have a 1 in 1,024 chance of being rejected by all.</p>
<p>For an estimate of odds: Because of how yields work, you may need to be in about the 67th percentile of the previous year’s entering class to have a 50% chance of admission. Check schools’ Common Data Set section C for stats.</p>