I used to agree with this but no longer. Increasingly, I hear of Early round rejections that I wouldn’t have ever predicted. A growing number of students who seem easily strong enough to be accepted EA or ED (or at least strong enough to be deferred and reconsidered) are being denied outright in December instead. Of course, it’s ultimately helpful to these students to be dismissed and not deferred if there’s little chance of good news in the spring. But, on the other hand, these verdicts are very confusing because they do imply, “You’re way over your head here,” when, in fact, that’s not necessarily true.