One thing to note is that your kid was not only well positioned, but also applied widely. I have noticed on these boards that some students apply only to a few UC campuses assuming that they have a good chance of getting into (for example) UCSD or UCI or UCSB, and do not apply to (for example) UCD or UCSC, even while applying for highly impacted majors with a low overall chance of admission at most UC campuses. These students are more likely to be “shut out” (and consequently offered Merced or Riverside if they are eligible for the statewide or local guarantee).
This is true. Knowing there are 150,000 kids applying, we went into this with zero expectations.
My kid applied to every single UC and even a few OOS safety schools (Rose Hulman, ASU). We ever expected him to get into Berkeley and that low expectation was based on a clear-eyed understanding of the admit rates, historical admissions data for his school, class profile etc. plus the luxury of having spent 6+ months prior to the application deadlines in this forum. I don’t think any of us are telling you all this just because we happened to have lucked out.
The UCs provide a ton of data about not just the application process but also prior results localized to a school and geography. No one should be shocked by denials at the top UCs and in fact you should expect to get denied and it has nothing to do with nefarious policies that are letting in under qualified competitors.
I agree that it’s extremely helpful for CA (and WA) kids to find and apply to a couple of OOS likely or safety schools where they would be happy to attend, especially if these schools have early or rolling admission policies.
CA publics and UW both have relatively early RD application deadlines, but relatively late admission notification dates. This is a practical problem for students who misjudge their chances, don’t apply widely enough within their own public systems, and are surprised by poor results very late in the admission season. It can be difficult for students to switch gears so late in the season, and find other schools that they find desirable and are still accepting applications.
I feel my daughter also applied widely to the UCs, which were her number one choices. We set the expectation that with the exception of Cal State San Bernardino, her safety school, she was to only apply to schools she would be happy to attend. She did not like UC Davis or UC Santa Barabara and did not apply there, but UC Riverside and UC Merced were very viable options. Every week, if she got accepted to a new UC I hyped that school as the best choice for her. I was thrilled, up at 430 am, checking the UC Merced portal.
I do believe my daughter benefitted heavily from the Essays and probably got a small boost with test blind.
Yes there are 13 factors used for admissions but they are not all equal. Each factors weigh towards admission is ranked “very important” to “considered”. without fail, each UC campus has only rigor, GPA, and essays under “very important”. A few things are under “important”, sometimes EC, work, volunteering … but some schools have these attributes under “considered”. For our private high school with about 300 seniors, the 10 or so students with the highest gpa and rigor were the ones that got into ucla, ucb, ucsd and ucsb. With the exception of Berkeley admitting a handful of kids from the environmental cohort - and many of those kids have only 1 ap course as the coursework in that cohort is predetermine. And yes, many kids choose that for its access to Berkeley admissions.
What is the environmental cohort?
At our public high school sophomores choose one of 4 “cohorts” for their junior and senior year. These consist of:
Environmental: environmental focus with 1 AP offering, AP Bio, and many comm service projects
Communication & Media: mostly theater kids and zero AP offerings
TEAM: focus on non-trad and outdoor education model - zero AP offered
Traditional: the vast majority of the kids choose traditional as it’s the only way to freely choose your curriculum