Should we really look at Ivy League Admissions as a Lottery?

“It often looks random to me, too…sometimes as random as a lottery pick would be. Everybody scratches their heads on CC over what the elusive magic formula for admissions might be. Well, you know what? Maybe there isn’t a formula at all, just gut level responses and subjective feelings that guide the process after the requisite GPA and SAT thresholds have been established. Go read a Harvard results thread. You will see one kid with a 1910 and a 3.7 who gets in (unhooked) and another with a 2400 and a 4.0 who doesn’t. Both similar ECs. What was the magic formula for admission? I’m not even sure the adcoms could tell you.”

Sure they can. The 2400 might have come off as boring and the 1910 could have written a fabulous essay full of insight about himself or the world. The adcom could absolutely tell you.

When colleges tell you repeatedly that it’s not all about finding the highest SAT scores, why would you be “surprised” that the 2400 didn’t necessarily get in?

There is no magic formula precisely because it’s building a group of individuals, not cookie cutter versions of the same thing,

Of course they want people, but they also do need to fill institutional needs. Maybe they can just remember if they got the 2 harpists, the kids from Wyoming and Alaska, etc. they needed among those 2000 kids. I couldn’t.

“It’s like asking if you choose your friends or romantic partners by spreadsheet.”

Well some people choose partners based on emotion and “gut”. Others use eharmony or some other online, box-checking service.

My guess is that they do have a spreadsheet, that they pick the kids they want the most, fill in what “boxes” those kids are contributing to, then look at what they don’t have yet, and go through the many, many other well-qualified applicants thinking, we don’t have anyone from Montana yet, let’s look at the applicants from Montana and see who we like best, and if they can also fill in another box we are still missing, that certainly helps their chance. I just don’t believe it’s a coincidence that year after year they manage to get those few kids from the lowest-represented states by accident. Or the harpists. Or whatever other unusual attribute you would like to look at.

But has anyone actually asked an admissions officer if they use a spreadsheet?

“Of course they want people, but they also do need to fill institutional needs. Maybe they can just remember if they got the 2 harpists, the kids from Wyoming and Alaska, etc. they needed among those 2000 kids. I couldn’t.”

But they aren’t admitting the entire class in one day where they need to compare the five kids from MA to the one kid from Montana. The process has been extensively detailed. Of course they are using technology, but they are also reviewing PEOPLE.

And some years they don’t admit kids from Wyoming, the world doesn’t fall apart.

As someone who went to Harvard, I have no clue how I got in; my test scores and grades were at the Harvard median, but I was much less impressive than most of my classmates.

I would approach the admissions process as I did: just do your very best in high school (or college, for grad school admissions) and apply to schools that you have a shot at getting into, but don’t pin your hopes on a specific school.

I NEVER expected that I’d end up at Harvard and was shocked and thrilled when I got in.

“Well some people choose partners based on emotion and “gut”. Others use eharmony or some other online, box-checking service.”

Even if you use eharmony you still then look at the people who are presented to you, meet them and then go on gut. No one decides to marry someone matched with them on eharmony without meeting them.

Why is gut / intuition so threatening and scary for some people?

" they pick the kids they want the most, fill in what “boxes” those kids are contributing to, then look at what they don’t have yet, and go through the many, many other well-qualified applicants thinking, we don’t have anyone from Montana yet, let’s look at the applicants from Montana and see who we like best, "

That is different from just ticking a box that says “Kid is from Montana, check, he is in” which is how some apparently think it’s done.

That’s interesting, happy alumnus. Didn’t you just post yesterday that you went to a top 10 LAC? Or do you mean Harvard for law - which is a different topic / selection process from what’s being discussed.

In making college applications to highly selective colleges, in addition to filling in all the requisite boxes Rule #1 is: Don’t Be Boring. Use the free space, namely larger essays and short-answer questions, to say something interesting and perhaps distinctive about yourself. I recall a comment by the former dean of admissions at University of Chicago that the adcom often learns a lot more from the authentic and more spontaneous responses to those short-answer questions, than it does from the often overworked team-edited longer essays.

One way not to be boring is to offer something that doesn’t fall into any box. You don’t fit in? Great!

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/18516769/#Comment_18516769

Here’s where you said you went to a top 10 lac, happy alumnus.

No spreadsheets among the adcoms I know.

Some here are misunderstanding based on what “seems” to be obvious to them. Eg, their kid had no official service, so it can’t possibly be important.

This is no check box, nor another hierarchical thing like one has 100 hours and another has only 50. This is about what ‘doing for others’ represents. Same concept as what going for rigor shows or engaging in peer activities. Or being able to choose an essay topic and write something that resonates with the adults who read thousands of apps each year and want something relevant to an admissions review.

The thinking is so very hierarchical on CC that some truly can’t fathom how holistic works. It’s not the whim of shoe buying. It’s building a team.

Don’t “guess.” Not for the high stakes colleges. Do the leg work.

And don’t assume hooked kids can’t possibly be quality.

“Why is gut / intuition so threatening and scary for some people?”

Because it feels about as unpredictable as buying a lottery ticket (some kids are practically sacrificing their teen years, living on the edge of insanity, popping Adderall, etc…all to increase their chances in what essentially feels like a lottery). Understand, I don’t advocate any of that. I tell my son to try his best and be himself and let the chips fall where they may when it comes to college admissions (which are still a couple of years away). I don’t care where my son ends up, just so long as he is happy, challenged, and…gets some merit aid :slight_smile: But I do worry about all the kids who are practically killing themselves to get into these elite schools.

"Because it feels about as unpredictable as buying a lottery ticket (some kids are practically sacrificing their teen years, living on the edge of insanity, popping Adderall, etc…all to increase their chances in what essentially feels like a lottery). "

Well, no one forces them to define the only worthwhile / meaningful colleges in life as the Ivy League. If you’re 18 yo and you somehow have convinced yourself that the only chance of life success is in one of those 8 schools and everything else dooms you to flipping burgers, then you’re not as smart as you think you are.

Because the broader culture doesn’t salivate over these schools nearly as much as CC.

But EVERYTHING is life is unpredictable, zekesima. Who you fall in love with / marry. The kinds of children you’ll have - their temperaments, talents, abilities, skills. There’s a lot of randomness in life. Why am I married to my husband? Well, I just so happened to be assigned to a freshmen dorm that ate in the cafeteria of a different dorm where he served as RA. If I had been assigned to a different dorm, I probably would never have met him. And so what? I’d have met someone else and had a nice life, just a different one. Ditto for any one of a number if life decisions we make. Hey, if I’d had a headache that night, I wouldn’t have the kids I have!

There are so many elements of randomness in life that acting like college admissions can and should be “predictable” just seems silly.

“Well, no one forces them to define the only worthwhile / meaningful colleges in life as the Ivy League. If you’re 18 yo and you somehow have convinced yourself that the only chance of life success is in one of those 8 schools and everything else dooms you to flipping burgers, then you’re not as smart as you think you are.”

Yes, but we as parents often make our kids think of things that way with all of our stressing over grades and ECs and SATs and college essays, etc, etc… Our stressed out 17 year olds are picking up a lot of these cues from us.

@Pizzagirl, I have posted my educational history many times. Give up the attempts to start an argument, please. You can act better than that.

“There are so many elements of randomness in life that acting like college admissions can and should be “predictable” just seems silly”

Well high school GCs, teachers, many on CC, parents, and peers are telling the kids: if you do X, Y, and Z, you’re in. So the kids feel like they’ve failed when they don’t get in. Is not getting in not being good enough? Or is it being unlucky? or…? If kids better understood their admissions odds, they might not bother stressing about as much as they do.

Ignorance can be found in many places. People will have to take responsibility for their own ignorance instead of making artificial victims out of “kids.”

The kids who are “killing themselves” - well, there is a lot of myth that surrounds that, starting with: if you want to succeed, you have to nearly die for it. Many of the kids who are truly ready for a tippy top (or as best as we can tell) are leading balanced lives, making wise choices, challenging themselves and developing a nice resilience that will fit well at a tough college and allow them to thrive. Many of these kids are interesting, goal oriented, and able to see that adding some summer work or volunteering in the environment they’re interested in pays off personally. They also have the ability to ask for advice and when given, ponder it, incorporate it.

“Assuming” puts you in the so-called lottery position. Assuming is settling. Think about it: do the tippy tops need kids who assume?

So what if some GCs and others misunderstand? It’s the kid aiming for a top school, the kid who should be thinking and vetting. And, dang, should be able to, if he/she wants a top school that needs thinkers. Many of us have had kids come to us for advice, stating, their GC is clueless. We help them gain perspective, some respond. And others argue. Which is in a better position, to start with?

There is no “do this and you’re in.” 43,000 apps for 2000 spots. Do the math. Encourage your kids to think. The best any of us can tell a great kid is that he/she is qualified to apply.

And for those of you who haven’t seen it, look at the tables here:
http://www.brown.edu/admission/undergraduate/explore/admission-facts
It’s the only school I know that presents detail this way. Maybe another does.