<p>I think that most will agree that the key elements of college is fit and finances. </p>
<p>Numbers can be helpful to quantify some (but not all) decisions. </p>
<p>Let’s take a hypothetical. The numbers are only for discussion purposes ** and can be changed to anything you want.** Jerry has been accepted at a top five LAC and his state’s flagship university. The difference in cost is that 4 years will be 60,000 dollars more at the LAC (160K versus 100K). Jerry wants to go to a top grad school. He believes that he needs to finish in the top third of his class at either school to have the G.P.A. necessary to be in the running. Further, he believes that the name of his state flagship would only have a 25 percent chance of helping him get into a top grad school program and a 75 percent chance of hurting his chances, whereas he believes the LAC would have a 75 percent chance of helping him (i.e. reputation of the school beyond the grades) and a 25 percent chance of hurting him (competition from within his own LAC at these top schools). </p>
<p>The result is that Jerry has a 25 percent chance (1 out of 4) to get into a top grad school by going to the LAC. Jerry would have a 8 percent chance at the flagship university. Or another way of looking at it is Jerry is spending 160,000 dollars for a 1 in 4 chance at the outcome he seeks. Still another way of looking at it is that Jerry is 60,000 dollars more to have a 17 percent improved chance of getting into a top grad school. </p>
<p>Naturally, there is a lot more to college than being a mere stepping stone to some concrete objective. Many may find it useful just to find themselves (period). But decision tree analysis can be helpful trying to tackle the financial weighting component of ‘fit and finance.’ If anything, it helps reinforce it’s what you do at a college that matters more than anything else.</p>