Also coming from NYC, which has the biggest public school system in the country, the pool will be wide and the talent will be deep as far as students chasing private schools that meet full need along with selective OOS schools.
The hardest school you will have to choose is a true safety . The SUNYs are no longer a lock for everyone (especially at the research centers- Bing, Albany, UB and Stony Brook) because more NYers are taking advantage of the free tuition through Excelsior.
Unfortunately, I see this every year, students get shut out of the selective school pools and the schools where they are selected are unaffordable. You have until Feb 1 to toss a few SUNY/CUNy applications in the mix.