So if this is what "early" looks like, who actually gets admitted to T20-50 schools in the regular round?

[ucbalumnus]

@finnb

Should I mentally prepare to attend one of the 2 likely colleges I was admitted to, and assume none of the 8+ remaining T20-50 will extend an RD offer?

Yes. If you get an offer from a college more desirable than your likely or safety colleges, that can then be a pleasant surprise.