<p>notrichenough,
do you mind revealing what type of job you have/in which sector or industry?</p>
<p>I look at my stuff everyday also. I typically do not use stops. A few years ago I was going to model 2nd derivatives of price drops to come up with a better stop loss methodology to set daily stop losses. I suspect that you do not want to set your daily or perhaps longer term stop loss when the 2nd derivative is increasing rapidly as you are probably near a bottom.</p>
<p>I’m sure people did think WorldCom was a long term play.</p>
<p>I bought every biotech stock in the BTK index…over a decade ago…I wanted to avoid the fees…which I knew over a decade would be huge. 1.5% a year in fees sounds low to some people…but over time…the fees are huge…</p>
<p>Anyway…I did not use stops…because I did not know which companies would do best…
And some if the companies are down 80 percent maybe…and some are up over 100 percent…and overall…the biotechs did ok…</p>
<p>It would have been nice to use stops in some respect…But
I would have stopped out some of the winners…actually…I did sell some of the winners…lol… </p>
<p>Now the problem is…many of the better companies were taken over…and I have ended up with some of the dogs and while companies like genentech are gone.</p>
<p>Kind of like the covered writes…as NJres said…you end up with the losers and you lose the winners. Yes you can back the winners…but you
can end up buying high and selling low…</p>
<p>There is no perfect way for investors to protect themselves and
maximize profits. We just do the best we can with the time we want to utilize.</p>
<p>2nd derivative moves are pretty wide stops, right?</p>
<p>2nd derivatives of what?</p>
<p>"… many won’t realize it until they’re our age."</p>
<p>I could write a book.</p>
<p>Old Guy: Take care of your customers
New Guy: Most customers are a PITA.</p>
<p>Old Guy: Find out what customers need.
New Guy: I thought we were the expert in this field.</p>
<p>Old Guy: Change systems to benefit the business.
New Guy: Um, that’s not something I can put on my Resume …</p>
<p>I like new guys, I really do. But I prefer working with them once they get a bit of experience!</p>
<p>Are you all finding that the traditionally used technical analysis techniques out there apply at all anymore?
I mean, with all the other financial instruments, the flash and super-fast types of trading, the computerized trading and investing, the lack of public/retail participation???</p>
<p>For instance, years and years ago, I was quite fascinated by Lazlo Birinyi (sp) and his charts.</p>
<p>Are their any coming up with new (and substantially predictive) technical methods to account for all these changes??</p>
<p>It just feel so much like a gambling casino with the odds stacked against the little guy who does not have access to all the computer power and algorithms, not unlike going up against both the card-counters and the house in the casino…</p>
<p>“I’m sure people did think WorldCom was a long term play.”</p>
<p>I did … at least my tech investments were well diversified, and only a third of investments was in tech. As for biotech, it’s DW’s field so we’ve done well there. Of course with all the buyouts and closures there aren’t many good targets left. (Any hope Genentech will be spun off … again?)</p>
<p>I use moving average, various patterns (triangles, h&s, flags, pennants, w’s, island reversals, gaps), trendlines, fibonacci retracements indicators. I sometimes use secondary indicators like candles, stochastics, moneyflow to rule out a trading idea.</p>
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<p>I have a friend that came out with an indicator which many of us on a trading forum now use.</p>
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<p>There are advantages to being the little guy.</p>
<p>The big guys have to keep producing. I can just get out of the market for a few years
if I want to.</p>
<p>“It just feel so much like a gambling casino with the odds staked against the little guy who does not have access to all the computer power and algorithms …”</p>
<p>performersmom - You’ve put your finger on the principal problem investing in stocks. It’s no longer sufficient to put your money in market leaders or well-managed companies or companies in growing markets, etc. General Electric may be a fine company, but those who held onto their GE stock when Jack Welch left the company have lost a lot of money … even if they sold before the Credit Crisis.</p>
<p>NewHope33…I like your post 405.</p>
<p>I think Genentech is gone forever as a public company. Just an opinion.</p>
<p>Peferomersmom…hft firms aren’t doing that well this year.</p>
<p>The lack of volume and volatility hurts these firms.</p>
<p>Many trading firms…including hft firms are closing shop or merging.</p>
<p>“I’m sure people did think WorldCom was a long term play.”</p>
<p>My father would never buy stock until I convinced him after a number of years. The timing wasn’t great and worldcom was one that I suggested along with Tyco (just before Dennis was nailed) along with a bunch of other loser stocks</p>
<p>A lot of technical analysis is ********. It works until it doesn’t. I love the curves that are drawn to fit the data - useful for looking backwards - not so for looking forwards. I’ve modeled all kinds of stuff using routines that I wrote. I did create nice contour plots though. I always judge relative to buy and hold. For me, if it doesn’t beat buy and hold even over a year’s timeframe (I’m not talking 10 years), even if it makes money who cares?? An example for me was 2009. I used technical analysis to time my buy and sells. It was a mistake. Although I made money, I would sell and ended up buying back at a higher price. Also wash sale rules don’t exactly help either. Fundamental analysis didn’t work so well because everything was highly correlated. </p>
<p>As far as second derivatives of the price, I mean calculating the slope of the price change. It means looking for a crescendo on selling which is exactly where you shouldn’t be selling.</p>
<p>Ok… Doct…maybe we should be buying that acceleration…tough to do…</p>
<p>I agree with your views on tech analysis…</p>
<p>Great communitcating with everybody.</p>
<p>Ok have to go…I am meeting some hft people. ;)</p>
<p>I used to really like to look at the money flows in and out of stocks. Can that even be done anymore??</p>
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<p>You buying them out?</p>
<p>No…</p>
<p>I am not that rich…</p>
<p>Well…I shouldn’t say that…</p>
<p>One firm went for a buck. :)</p>
<p>Do they have anything of value such as algorithms? Its too bad that the neutrino experiment which showed that they can travel faster than light was wrong. I was hoping on catching a few and using them to beat hft traders to the floor.</p>
<p>The top Hft firms are going to trade at close to the speed of light…</p>
<p>My guess is there was something of value.</p>
<p>Yeah and I could of beat them if only neutrinos traveled faster than the speed of light. Well I’m 75 miles from the stock exchanges. Maybe if I can build a 75 mile vacuum tube and get the maximum light speed (fastest in a vacuum), I can beat them.</p>
<p>Not going to work…you are too far… ;)</p>
<p>[Weak</a> Jobs Report Puts QE3-Pressure Back On Bernanke - Forbes](<a href=“http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/04/06/weak-jobs-report-puts-qe3-pressure-back-on-bernanke/]Weak”>Weak Jobs Report Puts QE3-Pressure Back On Bernanke)</p>