@curiouspup Yep – lots of Resulting Fallacy going on…
Actually, the Resulting Fallacy is a great analogy for college admissions. You can’t judge the work you did on your application by the results you get. There are nondeterministic factors at play.
“Don’t be so hard on yourself when things go badly, and don’t be so proud of yourself when they go well.”
http://nautil.us/issue/55/trust/the-resulting-fallacy-is-ruining-your-decisions