The earlier CPI/USDA numbers use a consistent size, such that they consider increases in grocery expense due to shrinkflation. Shrinkflation is a real thing, but the referenced analyses of actual prices per consistent size find that shrinkflation primarily occurred during high inflation periods (2022) and supply shock periods, rather than the low inflation period of past couple years.
This is consistent with the ice cream example above. Reviewing the better selling ice cream brands, none have decreased their standard package size in recent years. Some have decreased package size, but not in recent years.
The most famous package size decrease is probably Haggan Daz, which caused an uproar when they decreased their 1 pint package size from 16 oz to 14 oz. However, that change occurred 16 years ago in 2009, during Global Financial Crisis. Baskin Robbins imitated Haggan Daz, changing their package size more than a decade ago. Ben & Jerry’s continues their historical pattern of marketing as a different alternative to Haggan Daz, rather than imitating Haggan Daz (there is a good economics paper suggesting there is collusion between the 2 brands, with smooth vs chunky separation), and remains at 16 oz.
Like Haggan Daz, Breyers decreased their package size during the Global Financial Crisis, in 2008. In more recent years, the standard larger package size is 1.5 quart (48oz), which almost all the major manufacturers that sell a larger size use. Blue Bunny is an exception, which decreased from 48 oz to 46 oz, a decade ago. Tillamook decreased package size from their generous >48 oz to 48oz during COVID supply chain disruption in 2020-2021.
I find Costco has by far the best prices on hot cereal I buy – their 10lb package of Quaker Oats. This is a unique product for which price is lower if you buy on Same Day delivery, rather than in store. Same Day sells for $8.68 for 10lb and currently has a 30% off sale, bringing the total to approximately $6 for 10lb. My nearest grocery store charges 5x higher, when expressed per lb.
However, for cold cereal, I find I can get better value elsewhere. This relates to often choosing store brand over name brand (Costco doesn’t sell store brand cereal), and stocking up when I see an especially good sale, rather than buy at sticker price. I prefer the taste and/or ingredients to many name brands over store brands. Cereal stores well, so it lends itself well to stocking up during the occasional steep discounts.
This post is meant to comment on middle class finance/shopping. I realize many people don’t have access to Costco and/or cannot easily buy in bulk.
Of course it’s wonderful when towns/colleges/churches have food pantry’s and such to help those in need. Thank goodness.
Let’s not forget that there is - or should be - some pride in being able to purchase your own food to feed yourself or your family. For many, it is a hard step to take to accept those donations. But it is a message that one might send to themselves that says “I have failed. I cannot provide for myself or my family” Depending on circumstances that is not easy.
Additionally, some pantries have limitations based on demand as well. Of course they aren’t meant to subsidize a household entire food budgets. But will all the things - increased prices, less SNAP $, less government food-related options like programs, grants, etc. - are going to likely minimize what or how often places can give to those in need.
And infrastructure needs. A food pantry without industrial sized refrigeration is going to be distributing donated bread and lentils but not huge quantities of eggs and milk. A food pantry operating in donated office space won’t have a loading dock capable of handling multiple trucks and pallets in an efficient way… everything needs a handcart to the service elevator, etc.