The biggest flaw in this logic based on the stats you posted (I didn’t double check) is that his SAT is well below the 25th %ile and is not in the the 40-50th as you suggest. the numbers you posted are for the middle 50% admitted students, meaning that in each case the lower number is for the 25th%ile and the higher is for the 75th%ile. You son’s stats are well below the bottom quarter mark for SAT for DGS. if his rank makes it to 80 he’d be right at that bottom quartile mark but will it be there for his priority app or are you thinking that’s where he’d wind up by the end of this year? It sounds like is rank is also well below the 25th currently. You are correct in thinking that it’s a relatively long shot to get admitted to a large public school in that situation without other strong factors in his favor