<p>I understand why you might jump to that conclusion, but I disagree in this case. </p>
<p>Indeed, Stanford defers much less than Yale does, and this is a dynamic I considered in the chancing. However, this is more reflected in my probabilities for rejection, which indicate he is twice as likely to be rejected at Stanford. I feel this is accurate.</p>
<p>He is a very strong candidate, and it is unlikely (5% at Stanford and 10% at Yale IMO) he will be rejected SCEA.</p>