@NerdyChica, you may be right, but there’s a lot of speculation built into that analysis unless you happen to know how many AB Duke winners have applied and won and how many apply from other schools. I was operating from the fact I know, which is that there are far more winners from the schools at the top of that list than there are from Duke.
Again just an aside, as for even the very top students the chances of winning are so low that IMO it’s not worth considering in choice of college.