It’s always a trade-off, right? Where else could you be applying ED or SCEA that you are giving up in order to do it at Stanford. If the answer is that there is absolutely no where else that you’d rather be, then take your shot and be glad that at a minimum you will have a data point to work with by mid-December (deferred=competitive at comparable schools so stay the course, rejected=probably aiming a bit too high so make sure you’ve got a viable list.)
Of course, if you are giving up ED or SCEA at a school with a significantly higher acceptance rate, where you think you’d be nearly as happy, then you might want to go that way instead.
Or think of it this way: Whatever happens, you will end up somewhere wonderful, be happy and have wonderful experiences that change you in ways you can’t even begin to predict. How’s that for a happy ending?