None of this is easy. And if college A is overwhelmed by X sorts and B needs them, chances shift. On some thread, this or another, calmom explained her experience researching dept needs. In ways, you can try to get inside the heads of adcoms. As opposed to having developed intuitive insight into what your hs teachers and admins like.
Becuase no one outside admissions has the broad insight into what comes across in apps/supps, just going by numbers is so incomplete. If two apps grade out equally, yes, one may be more compelling. But that’s based on what’s in the app- not a summary of stats or rigor, Naviance, the bare bones in a Chance Me thread. And those institutional wants. It’s possible, eg, that the one chosen, Much2Learn, wants and fits an underenrolled major or geo area or is at a high school they want to encourage or a host of other uncontrollables.
So saying a kid perfect for, say, Stanford, may as well apply to USC misses not only possible different priorities, but also factors in the pool itself. You can’t know that.
That’s part of what I told my kids. You did your best, but we can’t know who else is applying, from our town or area, from some needed state, with some edge you don’t have. Or if lots of kids apply for your major this year or many with your pattern of ECs.
One reason I nag to research what the college does look for/value, is because so many kids don’t. Instead, they rely on simplistic advice or assumptions like you need national awards or “passion” or spike or they don’t want rounded or they do or they only fill RD with URMs or all sorts of bosh.
And a holistic truth, for tippy tops: any flaw in yhour app/supp could doom you (or push you much down the list.) A “perfect” candidate is in the execution, not just the obvious ingredients.