I’d rather kids and families invest more into learning and processing what makes one “a reasonable applicant” than playing with numbers and speculating. Most kids don’t know more than their stats/rigot/ECs and their own high school greatness. It takes more.
Sure, there are perfect kids, perfect apps/supps and you know those kids will have many tippy top admits, in the end. But that’s so few. It makes playing with probability just an acadeic exercise.