Strategies & Probabilities?

This is the funniest thread I have seen in a long time. A perfect case of “People don’t know what they don’t know.”

  1. As @lookingforward said, If you are inside the top 25 schools, you better get this "Holistic admissions thing" quickly.
  2. At a school with single-digit acceptance, perfect grades and test scores might get you to a 25 -30% chance, on average, but that is it.
  3. Each school has its biases but who they admit is clearly positively correlated. If 1,000 students with perfect grades and test scores apply to all 8 Ivies, a large number will be admitted to none, but most of the ones that get at least one acceptance will receive multiple acceptances.

The truth is that there are a lot of people on this site that can do a pretty good job of predicting admissions if they meet the student and get to know their ECs and achievements, read their essays, and review their transcripts. It isn’t really random. It just appears to be when you don’t have all the information.

@Much2learn, if it were possible (probably isn’t), knowing a college’s student body well could enable one to better predict who that college is going to accept and who they are not?

@Much2learn, if it were possible (probably isn’t), knowing a college’s student body well could enable one to better predict who that college is going to accept and who they are not?”

Sure, that helps. But you would also need to know who the school rejected, and also remember that the bar gets raised a bit each year at the top schools. The thing that confuses people the most is that they see that Stanford, Harvard, Penn, Columbia, Duke, etc., have a middle 50% of say 32-35 ACT. So they think, my student has a 32 so they have a good chance. They don’t comprehend that these schools can pick out maybe 1 in 15 students in that range and that they are doing it methodically.

For example, say the school has a process of ranking students from 1-10 on Academics and 1-10 on ECs and Essays, and then the Adcom discusses them. A student with a 36 ACT and all A’s in high school, two 750-800 subject tests, and several APs may have an academic 10. That means that no amount of additional AP coursework can increase that score. They are still not going to get in unless they have something else about them that impresses the ADCOM.

To get into top schools, they are still probably going to need a 7 or 8 on the EC/Essay side. That means that varsity sports, volunteer hours, and National Honor society are probably not going to be enough on their own. Do they have any state or national awards? Did they do something productive in their summers? Do they have a talent? They want to see that this student has demonstrated an ability to achieve something, almost anything really, at a high level. That can be via one significant achievement or by many more modest achievements. They are looking for engagement, initiative, focus, determination, achievement, leadership, and students who like a challenge.

A student with an academic ten can be beaten out by a student with an academic seven or eight with amazing out of class achievements.

They probably have a process for the initial evaluation scoring. Say Student X has decent volunteer hours and NHS. That might get them a score of a 2. Maybe Student X is also a varsity athlete and team captain, and all state qualifier (assume they are still not recruited for college). Maybe that is a 3-4. The student also has four gold medals for foreign language. Maybe gets them to a 4-5. The student has finished in the top 5 in a state competition three times in four years. Maybe this improves the student’s cumulative score score to a 6 - 7. The student was chosen for a highly selective and nationally known summer program and has a recommendation from that program. Cumulatively, that will probably get this student to an eight without one single knock-your-socks-off achievement. Many others will have an Intel Award or a national award in debate or some other high-level achievement that individually stands out. It is all about what impresses the Adcom in aggregate. Also, keep in mind that the essays are the students chance to tie this all together and explain how it all fits together from their perspective. The more cohesive the story is, the better the chance of admission.

Note that they are not very interested in accepting a class of robotic study machines. They are also not very interested in students who are well rounded. They want someone who is likely to be significantly engaged in the university experience in some way beyond academics, improve the experience of the students around them, and who they believe has a higher likelihood of achieving something extraordinary in the future.

“A student with an academic ten can be beaten out by a student with an academic seven or eight with amazing out of class achievements.”

This x 1000. It’s very hard to understand as an outsider because the stats are so obvious and objective and the ECs and LORs are subjective and mostly not known to others.

I agree with the start of your post, Much2Learn. But contrary to CC’s belief, it’s not so much something that “impresses” adcoms as holding to a standard or the standard expectations. It’s not about awards or one significant achievement, as much as the pattern of choices that show activation, stretch, awareness, concern for others, flexibility/openness, etc. And yes, that can be maufactured, sure. But a lot of kids and families either resist or don’t get it. They really miss that the most competitives have more than enough apps to cherry pick. And what holistic means.

Many think about this hierrchically (best this or that, top 5, highest scores, Intel vs some lesser competition, etc.) But it’s the whole picture. A kid could have the stats, rigor, titles, some work or vol experience related to the major and more- and still not hit a mark, have the attributes. Also, a so-so essay could be the Achilles heel, even with strong other elements.

They are very interested in well-rounded. These top colleges are not looking for kids who will only excel in the classroom or be lab rats. They want an openness shown in the record to date. And that’s not just some “doing,” but the intentionality.

Lab rats and singular mindedness gets a bad rap like the kids are anti social or some other connotations. Most of our great scientific achievement and miraculous discoveries are the direct result of these type of people. And they certainly can be interesting. Albert Einstein was known to be rather charming and funny in his own way.

Picking a class should include some of these high stats stats too.

Gosh, I sure hope that schools still like well rounded. I mean what’s wrong with a student that excels across the board academically (including finishing Multivariable Calc by senior year, tons of APs in all subjects and has won state-level awards for his writing) AND is a three season athlete AND an accomplished artist AND is on the board of more than one community service group? Bummer if that student isn’t going to get into a top 30 school because he’s not pointy enough.

Most folks would say the person you describe is in fact the ideal. Not the other way around. Or perhaps I am missing something. And the person who is all of those, in equal measure , is not missing out on any school at all. They would be the cream of the crop

Homerdog, forgive me, but see how your list of examples still leans hierarchical? MVC, tonsof AP, awards, etc. An engineering wannabe might join the theater tech crew (as a side interest,) doesn’t need to run the team or win an award. It’s impressive when a stem kid hits the higher math levels, but the bar isn’t that. You don’t need to be on some board. In contrast, some well thoughtout vol activities can work better than kids’ focus on hours.

But those don’t swing him/her into atop 30. It’s the whole- and includes the thinking that shows. All this CC talk about writing “killer essays” and most kids have no idea what that means, don’t stop to ponder.

@homerdog “Gosh, I sure hope that schools still like well rounded. I mean what’s wrong with a student that excels across the board academically (including finishing Multivariable Calc by senior year, tons of APs in all subjects and has won state-level awards for his writing) AND is a three season athlete AND an accomplished artist AND is on the board of more than one community service group?”

I stated that poorly. Well-rounded is great, it just is not sufficient. They are probably going to take the kid whose only EC is science but has a national award, over a kid with 13 clubs that s/he has participated in. The second kid may be more well rounded but hasn’t shown a level of achievement. A student is better off focusing on a few or even one thing they really enjoy and achieving something in that instead of thinking they need to be in some large number of activities. For example, Stanford isn’t likely to reject Tiger Woods application because he only does golf.

Well rounded is definitely a positive as long as it is in addition to other things.

Additionally, students like the example you are suggesting, who demonstrate a high level of achievement in multiple areas, are often admitted, even if they don’t have one singular astonishing achievement. Similar to the example I gave in #62. That student also lacks a singular achievement that would get them admitted, but in aggregate has shown an ability to achieve a lot in multiple areas.

@lookingforward “Also, a so-so essay could be the Achilles heel, even with strong other elements.”

Because if the student doesn’t see the common thread that ties their achievements together, and guides them, then maybe it doesn’t exist. The school wants to understand what makes the applicant tick, and what their institution can to do help them achieve their goals. If they can’t glean that from the essays, then why would they admit the student?

@Much2learn @lookingforward Points taken. And, yes, he is aware that his essays will be very important. He will need to show what makes him tick and tell his story in a cohesive way. Even though he’s a strong STEM student, he’s not planning on majoring in anything STEM. He also knows his recs are important and we hope he chose well.

I would hope and expect that most teachers wouldn’t go out of their way to mess with a 17 year old’s future. OTOH, if we assume teachers try to be as positive as possible while still be honest, there are some kids who just aren’t going to stand out in any class and who aren’t going to get outstanding LoR’s.

Last fall I had the chance to attend mock Admissions Committee sessions run by Tufts and Wesleyan. Both were interesting, but both made more or less the same points, so I don’t need to go to anymore.

Tufts has a roadshow that they brought to my son’s high school. As Tufts required, it was open to the general public. I’d advise going if they’re doing it near you and you’re interested in how the process works. They used files from applicants from the previous year, redacted to protect privacy. They started by showing us just grades and scores for 6 or 7 kids, then had us vote on who which 2 we’d admit. Then, over several steps, they added more info and asked us to vote at each step. It was a while ago, but it was something like, next step was adding the classes they took so we could see classes and rigor, then EC’s, then summaries/excerpts from essays and letters of recommendation. It was interesting to see how votes changed as you got more info for each kid and how the final admit votes were so different from the initial just grades and scores votes. Much of the point, which I knew but which became more vivid, was that once you’re talking about an applicant with the academic chops to succeed at the school, all the other factors are what allow you to sort out which of the many, many qualified applicants you actually want at your school and how the kid with the highest grades and scores isn’t necessarily the most interesting or compelling applicant.

At Wesleyan, the mock committee was part of a program Wesleyan runs for alums and their high school juniors. Slightly different set up than Tufts, as we saw all the info at once (Wesleyan and Tufts used basically the same sort of information), rather than step by step. But, again, it was clear that the whole file, the whole picture, says much more than just grades and scores and there can be excellent reasons to pick a kid with the slightly lower scores and grades over a kid with higher ones.

Now, neither program particularly addressed institutional priorities like legacies, URM’s, gender balance, geographic distribution, etc, etc. But both did provide a real sense of what it means to practice holistic admissions when the applicant pool consists mostly of students who could absolutely academically succeed at the school.

Of course, I could (we all could) decide that every time an AO or an admissions website says they practice holistic admissions, read every application completely and don’t have absolute grade or score cut offs , they’re all lying through their teeth. But I haven’t seen anything that leads me to believe that. No doubt AO’s spin some, while hopefully falling short of lying. They very clearly have non-answers to questions they don’t want to answer (eg, EDI vs EDII admit rates at many schools). But I’m inclined to basically take them at their word about whether or not they practice holistic admissions and what that means.

@NewEngParent Re the letters of recommendation, if the school or the Common App asks for letters from teachers, I would strongly urge you to have your kid get letters from teachers. If they schools wanted to hear from other people, they’d ask and sometimes they do. Dartmouth asks for a letter from a peer. University of Rochester asks for a letter from someone who isn’t a teacher. Both of those are in addition to the letters from teachers. Once in a great while, there will be a reason to add a letter that isn’t specifically asked for. A friend of mine has a daughter who is a high school junior here in New York. For reasons I don’t understand, there is a social science professor, head of his department at a top 10 university in a different part of the country (I’m deliberately being vague) who has chosen the town I live in as a place to do some research in his field. He is using local high school students to gather information, including my friend’s daughter, A. (No, none of this makes sense to me, but yes, it’s a real thing.) A, not surprisingly if you know her, is doing an amazing job. He adores her. He’s made it clear he’ll pull strings like crazy to get her into his school if she wants (unfortunately, doesn’t work for her for various reasons). Next year, he’s officially making her a TA just like his TA’s at the university and says her insights and observations are every bit as good as those from the undergrads he teaches. She won’t get paid, but she can legitimately put on her application that she is a TA for blah blah course at Top Twenty University. He will be writing her an extra recommendation letter that she’ll submit. Honestly, a circumstance like that or something similarly unusual and amazing is pretty much the only circumstance in which I’d suggest submitting a letter that wasn’t asked for. Otherwise, it’s good to remember the maxim: the thicker the file, the thicker the student.

I can’t find the post now, but somebody suggested not waiving your right to see your letters, so that you could pick and choose which to send. I see the point, but I’d remind people that common wisdom here on CC and in other places that talk about admissions, is that waiving your rights is the smart thing to do because the colleges will assume that teachers feel free to be honest in those letters.

In another post I can’t find, someone said they didn’t like The Gatekeepers because it didn’t really tell you how to get into a competitive school. I don’t believe that that was the point of the book. The author was a NYT reporter. The book was journalism, not a how-to. It’s not a guide to getting into schools, it’s insight into a process that is usually kept very private.

As I noted above, when I posted about poor or negative LOR’s, in most cases its not intentional-- either the teacher just doesn’t know what the colleges are looking for or comes up short-- or subconscious biases slip through in the choice of words.

However, there are cases of teachers who can and do write LOR’s deliberately sabotaging or undermining an application. Sometimes the teacher feels they are just being honest and trying to present a balanced picture; but sometimes a teacher really does want to undermine that particular student’s chances. You think it’s cruel to a 17-year-old? Well I have seen it with a 13 year old applying to a specialized high school program. Very deliberate attempt to sabotage; also disingenous and untruthful. It looked like a letter that Severus Snape might have written for Harry Potter.

And that is one reason my kids did not waive rights and saw the LOR’s their teachers submitted. It may be “common wisdom” on CC that waiving rights “is the smart thing to do” … but it certainly didn’t hurt my daughter at all in her college admissions process. It wasn’t a special thing to ask for – it was standard practice at both of my kid’s schools for the teachers to provide students with copies of their letters; and at my daughter’s high school the students were also responsible for mailing the LOR’s in envelopes provided by the school. There were three teachers who wrote letters, one of which was amazing. One was… interesting. And one was inadequate, by a teacher who liked my daughter but was not a good writer and just didn’t know what goes into a LOR-- no real personal information, it could have been a form letter used for any good student.

If, in fact there was nothing to worry about because all high schools teachers are thoughtful and benevolent and none would ever want to mess up a 17-year-old’s future… then there would be no possible value in confidentiality in any case. The whole point of confidentiality is to protect the teachers who might be conveying negative information.

I’m not advocating what other students should do. I have a legal background and years of experience in litigation. From a legal perspective, “waiving rights” is never a “smart” thing to do, in any context. Sometimes it is a necessary thing to do… but “waiving” always means giving up something of value. So the cost of waiver needs to be measured against the benefits.

All I said upthread is that when students do waive the right to see those letters, they are giving up the ability to see what may be the most significant part of their applications beyond the objective data of GPA and test scores. So when it comes to assessing probabilities — it makes that task all the more difficult.

This is a thread titled “strategies and probabilities.” So my kid’s college strategy was to know what she had to work with for LOR’s – which might have included the option to seek additional or different LOR’s to replace or supplement weak letters. Or at least to have a more realistic assessment of chances and perhaps save on application fees if the LOR’s are lackluster.

I was talking essays and you quoted me, so I assume this refers to essays:
“Because if the student doesn’t see the common thread that ties their achievements together…”
The personal statement isn’t where or how you do this, not for a tippy top. Sometimes you can show it there, but it’s not necessary. The PS is really just a nice tale or narrative that “shows,” via that tale, attributes. You don’t need to wrap yourself into a coherent picture of, say, a stem kid or how important music is to you. Or how very much you want to be a doctor.

“He will need to show what makes him tick and tell his story in a cohesive way.” This comes through in the whole app or not. “Even though he’s a strong STEM student, he’s not planning on majoring in anything STEM.” That’s not a liability. For schools that like inquisitiveness or broad interests, it’s good. There are strong humanities kids, eg, who went through AP calc, maybe did some math ECs, it’s good. But you also need to show the rest.

Depending on the hs, they may insist or pressure you to sign the LOR waiver. Ours said waiving makes teachers more comfortable they can be honest. There certainly are kids who so pressure teachers that they can cause issues if they don’t like the letter they see (not that I think most kids know what a good letter is. It’s an adult thing.) Some say adcoms will discount an LoR, if you didn’t waive- but I’ve never seen this. Do what you wish, that works in your hs context.

Honestly, if you want to be X major and claim and reclaim it, you really ought to have a letter from a teacher in that. Not 9th or 10th grade, but recent. AP level, if possible, assuming a related course is offered (preferably a core.) If you don’t, what’s a reader supposed to think? That you didn’t understand? Oops. That you thought the teacher doesn’t like you? Oops.

@calmom Now that’s something to think about. I am 99.9% sure that S19’s LORs will be outstanding. The teachers told us very specific awesome things about him during our teacher conferences and these teachers have a lot of experience writing letters. That being said, I understand how a teacher could use adjectives that sound great to them but come off generic. I assume AOs can see if you’ve waived your right to see them? Do we really think that would matter and they would think the teacher wouldn’t write an honest letter if the student got to see it?

I’d love to hear if people think that AOs would hold it against a student if they did not waive their right to see LORs. Where would an AO even see that info…if the student waived their right or not? Maybe at the top of the LOR?

Ime, as I said, adcoms barely look at that waiver line in the app. YMMV, but I’ve never seen a comment on that. The letter is what it is.

I’d add that sometimes perfectly good LOR’s have mistakes in them. Sometimes it’s a grammar or spelling error – no big deal, but it can certainly influence the way the ad coms view the letter. If the teacher has managed to misspell the student’s name in the first sentence… probably would be nice to get that right.

Sometimes it’s more material, such as a teacher who mistakenly believes some fact about a student and inserts something that is untrue. I don’t mean an opinion… but the teacher is under the mistaken belief that a particular student won an award that he student did not win or claim to win.

So seeing the letter is an opportunity to correct, or not. (Not all errors are worth bothering the teacher about).

Regarding the independence of admission events, the concept to use is “conditional independence”. If we don’t know anything about candidates or colleges, then yes, the admission events are not independent. That is why someone with very high stats and ECs and background can get correlated admissions to universities within a certain type. But, once we know the candidate and the types of colleges, then we can determine a set of conditional probabilities. These conditional probabilities could be high, which is why we can observe a candidate getting into 20 highly selective colleges, or they could be low, which is why we can observe a candidate not getting into any of those colleges.
They can be different, with one estimated for each college. But it is then reasonable to treat each of the admission events as conditionally independent, which captures the idea that each college is making a separate decision, not influenced by those of other colleges. Then, the Bernoulli formula from the original post can be applied.

In other words, Pr(admission) is not independent, but in theory, Pr(admission | candidate, college) is independent. In practice, though, it is hard to characterize the conditional event, since that would mean knowing how a given college evaluates subjective data like background, essays, and letters of recommendation and combine them with objective data.

So, a theoretical model will not capture the reality perfectly. But this is true of all models, and is why George Box once said that “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

I believe that what OP really wants to know if applying to more high reach colleges will increase the chances of admission. Applying CC wisdom that holistic process is just a way to accept students who satisfy some institutional need if you child has something special to offer then yes. For example, if your child is an outstanding bassoonist then by applying to more colleges you may hit the one that needs a bassoonist this year.