<p>Colleges don’t release this kind of information, so you have to glean what you can from anecdotal evidence, academic studies, books by ex-admissions directors and such. My educated guess is that it boils down to this: At a school like Wesleyan, the acceptance rate is substantially higher for ED applicants than for the regular pool (about 40% ED v. 26% RD). However, the ED pool includes a good number of legacies and recruited athletes who are basically locks for admission. When you back those kids out, you’re left with an ED group whose collective chances are probably only slightly higher than they would be during the RD round. That group includes some very high academic performers who would be great candidates whenever they applied, and some others at the lower end of the school’s academic averages who are hoping they can come in just over the bar. So it’s very hard to calculate how much any individual’s chances are improved by applying ED.</p>