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<p>Well, yes. Do you see her stats? And her URM status (which indeed does matter)? Show me how many black female SCEAers applied to Yale with stats like those who got rejected. I’d predict that it’s much less than 90%.</p>
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<p>Sure, but we aren’t admissions officers. We are chancers.</p>
<p>There are sites that do this based off of hard data. Parchment.com, for example, gives rough (and probably optimistic, considering how it collects data) percentage chances based on a person’s stats and the stats and admission success of comparably qualified applicants in past rounds. My percentage guess is a rough estimate based from my experience from this site. </p>
<p>I actually think Parchment (which offers the most less crappy of crappy ways of chancing available that I’ve found) would predict her chances to be around 50% (meaning that 1 in 2 people last year with stats like hers got accepted). But I’m unwilling to go that far.</p>
<p>You might disagree with my method, and I won’t pretend that I hve any of this down to a science or anything. My guess is as good as anyone’s. However, it’s still my guess.</p>