Then ED1 to C, ED2 to HM if needed, and RD to UT. Unless your sport is the most important to you and then switch 'em up.
“strong chances” at HM falls far short of a likely letter. And btw, my kid is a recruited athlete at MIT. I don’t dispute your info. The info I gave is also correct. A recruited athlete at MIT must already have amazing stats and even then there is no guaranty.