“Strong chances” is not a commitment to a recruit. Coaches can want to build their pool of applicants, but in the end, only pulling for their best ones. My big Mudd concern is D3 still focuses on the educational experience first. And the 34 puts you squarely in the mid 50%, not higher. (Plus we don’t know your subscores, which matter much.) The grades are problematic and more risky if you have less than A in courses related to the major. For engineering, many kids will have the math-sci and engineering EC experiences that prove them out, including the mindset top schools look for. These support their apps, in the adcom view.
Make your best choice. But with eyes wide open.