Success rate with waiver request for the CSS?

Here is the waiver form for reference: https://cssprofile.collegeboard.org/pdf/css-profile-waiver-request-non-custodial-parent.pdf

Each college makes its own decision. However, what you described suggests that a waiver is unlikely.

They are more empathetic to their own financial aid budgets. Effectively excluding a large percentage of financially needy students (i.e. those with uncooperative divorced parents) reduces the financial aid budget that they need to provision. They are probably also worried about a few people gaming or cheating the system with sham divorces if they only considered the custodial parent finances, even though the number of people in situations like your probably greatly outnumbers those who will do such things.