Didn’t say huge reach - but questioning whether it’s a target. If you are right below the 25th percent, then perhaps you pull in - after all, 25% have less. If you do get in, you’ll get the OOS waiver - which is nice.
What you really need to figure out is - what type of school do you want - because an FSU and a Hendrix - they are polar opposites.
You not wanting to go into debt - but that doesn’t say where you hit debt - but as you say - $20K.
So you need to focus on those schools to get you there - and you’ve already heard of many.
So I’m a merit chasing parent. My kids are both under $20K a year - but by their chase. While I chased merit, not to that extreme. One is at Bama and one is at College of Charleston. Now, the C of C one - it was about $40K when we accepted but $25K came in after from the school and that you can’t plan for.
You might swing for the fences - ie still have your Bama, UAH, Arkansas, Mizzou - wherever - but look at an SMU and W&L - who have 100% covered programs. Now, with your GPA it’s highly unlikely - but get on their email lists…they’ll send you free apps. With 20 common app spots and chasing merit - use them all!!!
Make sure each and every school you apply to can get you to your $ that you need.
Do you have financial need? We don’t know - just that you don’t want to run into debt. Do an NPC at a meets need school - like U Miami - just to see where you’d end up.
When I hear you say, naturally beautiful area, low cost, and with your #s, I hear - U of Arkansas!!! I don’t hear FSU although beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Good luck.