I don’t have anything beyond what posters have shared so far. Have your S do his best on the applications (especially the Why Us? essays at the schools that have those), apply, and see where he gets accepted and what the FA offers are. It’s difficult to handicap where merit aid offers will come in at some schools.
Why Us? essays should be very specific to the school…talk about an intended major, classes you would like to take, a prof you’d like to do research with, clubs/orgs you would be involved with. You should not be able to just change the name of the college and insert the same Why Us? essay…if that’s the case it is too generic.