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<p>@kotbala: At Swarthmore and elsewhere, the percentage of students accepted in the ED round exceeds the corresponding percentage in the RD round. For example, you might hear that 30% of applicants are accepted in ED at college X, but only 12% in RD. Many people conclude that it is harder to be accepted in the RD round. What people do not tell you is that the pools of applicants are very different. Perhaps the biggest difference is that the ED pool has most of the recruited athletes. They have already given their GPAs and test scores to the coaches. For applicants who get through this first screen, the acceptance rate is very high. So, the acceptance rates for non-athletes who apply ED could be way below 30%. At Swarthmore around 20% of the entering class comprises varsity athletes and they have a big impact on the ED acceptance rate. </p>
<p>Your question raises yet another issue, and it cannot be answered using ED and RD acceptance rates. You are asking for the chances in RD for an applicant who was deferred in ED. In principle, the answer could be anything. At one school, a deferral may be a consolation prize that confers virtually no chance of ultimate acceptance. At another school, it may mean that the applicant has an excellent chance of acceptance in the RD round, but the admissions office just wants to see the RD applicants to be sure. Only Swarthmore admissions can give you an informed estimate of your child’s chances. (And past performance is no guarantee of future results.) Take everything you read on CC with a grain of salt.</p>