Mudd’s acceptance rate isn’t that different from MIT’s. 8% MIT vs 13.6% Mudd last year, I think. And Mudd was 9% for male applicants.
You can’t know your chances. That is why people apply to more than one school. None of those tools giving “chances” have a solid set of data. If your school has Naviance, that is a decent source. But discuss it with your GC, they know things like if accepted students with lower stats were hooked.