Yes, you should only do a binding ED application if the NPC projects affordability. It’s not cool to apply ED in hopes that they’ll give you more than what’s projected, and a favorable outcome in that scenario is unlikely.
Your list seems like you’re basically shotgunning the top undergrad IE programs as ranked by USNews, minus Berkeley which you probably realize has zero chance of affordability. This is fine as a starting point, but UCB probably isn’t the only one with no path to affordability; run the NPC’s and consider which schools are really worth applying to.
Being from such a small high school makes it tough to hit the auto-admit threshold for UT-Austin; and even auto-admits aren’t guaranteed particular majors. Still worth applying. And I would think you should get into A&M; you just have to go through engineering secondary admissions there, but you certainly seem like you’d be equal to that challenge. And as you say, that 3+2 program seems like a great fit for a great price, and A&M IE is highly-regarded. For that matter, Texas Tech is very solid for both engineering and business, so you should have good in-state options no matter what. U of Houston and UTD are also worth a look.
So, you can get an excellent education in your field at affordable in-state rates. So be ruthless about where else is worth applying. Don’t waste your time on schools that absolutely won’t be affordable, or that you wouldn’t choose over in-state publics that you know you’ll get into.
Maybe consider applying to ASU Barrett - the specific programs are strong there, the Honors College is top-notch, and the merit is pretty generous.
Good luck!