<p>FWIW this has been going on here in California for a while now. Berkeley and UCLA are considered reach schools for nearly everyone, both OOS and IS. Way too many applicants worldwide for the few spots they have. Michigan may be slightly lower in some rankings, and maybe higher in others, but clearly it is on a similar worldwide pedestal. As applications from all over the planet have increased, even highly qualified applicants - and even IS students - may have to suffer increasing disappointment just as California residents have had to do.</p>
<p>Re: Michigan, who knows what went on behind closed doors this year, but I do not believe that the kids with the highest stats were necessarily deferred until they could prove their interest (i.e., prove that they were not just using Michigan as a safety). At my son’s large public school (OOS), dozens of kids applied and only two were admitted. One was my son, who had a 34 ACT, 4.0 uw, rigorous AP schedule, and deep/interesting/varied extracurriculars. The other admit was a similar student. As far as my son is concerned, he felt an instant affinity to Michigan the second we drove into Ann Arbor. We always considered Michigan to be a reach despite his qualifications.</p>
<p>I confess that I did not read my son’s application, but I have no doubt that it conveyed his sincere interest in the school as a top choice. He is still waiting for RD decisions, from both higher and lower “US News” ranked schools, but it will be hard to beat his interest in Michigan at this point. I suppose what I’m trying to say is, I suspect Michigan made decisions just as many highly-in-demand colleges do: based on a combination of intellectual ability, interesting and diverse extracurriculars, AND some sort of belief that there was a decent possibility that the accepted student would matriculate to Michigan. Whether this belief came from an overtly expressed interest, statistical trends from the student’s HS or area, legacy connections, or some other source, I have no idea.</p>