I agree with all of this. Plus applicants who have taken a gap year(s) have higher acceptance rates than those right out of undergrad, so that would have to modeled in too. Those coming right out of undergrad and even those with only one year of gap experience might never even make it to becoming a physician because they aren’t successful in their apps, so they just move on to a different job/career. Tricky to model all of these factors that have been mentioned, but it’s certainly possible.
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