<p>I doubt it will drop below 500. There is already way too much nervousness so I think a lot is baked in. Of course, it is heavily owned by hedge funds who may have already been getting out. One of the things that was pointed out on cnbc is that the volume over the last few weeks has been higher than normal which leads me to believe that maybe its the big guys getting out not the little trader folks. The other thing that was mentioned was that there seems to be rotation out of the apples, priceline etc which people think is to make room for buying facebook when it goes public.</p>
<p>I don’t think the stock is going below 385… :)</p>
<p>The stock may not even do down…it could go up…</p>
<p>I have no idea…</p>
<p>[Facebook</a> reveals revenue, profit slide ahead of IPO | Reuters](<a href=“http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/24/us-facebook-idUSBRE83M1AZ20120424]Facebook”>http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/24/us-facebook-idUSBRE83M1AZ20120424)</p>
<p>"(Reuters) - Facebook Inc reported its first quarter-to-quarter revenue slide in at least two years, a sign that the social network’s sizzling growth may be cooling as it prepares to go public in the biggest ever Internet IPO.</p>
<p>The company blamed the first-quarter decline, which surprised some on Wall Street, on seasonal advertising trends.</p>
<p>“It was a faster slowdown than we would have guessed,” said Brian Wieser, an analyst with Pivotal Research Group.</p>
<p>“No matter how you slice it, for a company that is perceived as growing so rapidly, to slow so much on whatever basis - sequentially or annually - it will be somewhat concerning to investors if faced with a lofty valuation,” Wieser said."</p>
<p>THAT ^ and cellphone account trends… hmmmmmmmmmm</p>
<p>Hmmm…I missed the cell phone count info…</p>
<p>What is going on there, performersmom?</p>
<p>Sorry, meant i-phone sales. But I do want to look into the cell phone service sign-up trends… somehow.
[AT&T</a> profit up, helped by iPhone sales drop - Yahoo! News](<a href=“http://news.yahoo.com/t-quarterly-profit-rises-higher-margins-114813544--finance.html]AT&T”>http://news.yahoo.com/t-quarterly-profit-rises-higher-margins-114813544--finance.html)</p>
<p>Ok, sorry, I meant i-phone sales as shown in AT&T’s latest report.</p>
<p>Here’s something from a few days ago about cell account trends, that looks like growth is slowing, and the competition is more and more about market share:
[Ahead</a> of the Tape: AT&T, Sprint Results May Not Connect - WSJ.com](<a href=“Ahead of the Tape: AT&T, Sprint Results May Not Connect - WSJ”>Ahead of the Tape: AT&T, Sprint Results May Not Connect - WSJ)</p>
<p>The problem is that those estimates do not include outside the US where smartphone penetration is less, particularly in Asia</p>
<p>We will find out very soon how iphone sales are doing.</p>
<p>I also have the april 575-580-585 call butterfly on…</p>
<p>I bought some more put spreads - april 550 - 540</p>
<p>Dtstark, if it helps, i have purchased 2 Ipads and an Iphone in the last quarter for my kids. ;)</p>
<p>Lol…Qdogpa…</p>
<p>Here we go doct …</p>
<p>By the way, I saw a few days ago, an analysis that showed combining all the calls and put options on aapl, the point of maximum pain is when at expiration on Friday, the share price = 560 - maybe that’s the price that Mr. Market is aiming for.</p>
<p>Hmmmmmm…i wonder how they got that 560 number…</p>
<p>The open interest isn’t that high at 560…</p>
<p>I don’t think Aprils are going to affect Apple much…</p>
<p>I can’t believe the number isn’t out yet…</p>
<p>check that 21 pt move in aapl with the earnings release</p>
<p>I would love it at 580 on Friday’s close…</p>
<p>590… Guess I can go home now…</p>
<p>Interesting results. Here is my dilemma. Since I own calls and puts that expire in May and puts that expire on Friday, I have two basic ways to go: sell everything tomorrow or sell just the april puts tomorrow and hold the May options until expiration:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Sell everything tomorrow - breakeven is somewhere between 590 and 600. Linearly interpolating since I’m too lazy to calculate everything between is probably around 595.</p></li>
<li><p>sell the april puts tomorrow and hold onto the May options until expiration. The breakeven is above 600. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>so basically around 610, #2 is making more money, below ~605, #1 makes more money.</p>
<p>The stock usually sells off during the day after reporting earnings but this usually happens after a large runup before earnings. This quarter, the behavior was the opposite and perhaps the stock will rally beyond tomorrow morning. Which way would you folks play it?</p>
<p>Those April puts are going to be crushed tomorrow…</p>
<p>You are not going to get much for those…</p>
<p>The stock is trading around 603…</p>
<p>Yes I know - I favor selling everything tomorrow.</p>
<p>My guess… At 603…Just for fun…</p>
<p>That apr put spread is going to be trading around .25 to .35.</p>
<p>The may 450 puts are going to trade around .25.</p>
<p>The May 480 calls will be close to parity…</p>
<p>The may 560 puts will be trading around 5.5 to 6.</p>
<p>The may 590 puts will trade for…15</p>
<p>The may 650 calls will trade for 7…edit…maybe 6.25.</p>