The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

Parent Cafe
2521

<p>Buying mortgages will save the day. :)</p>

2522

<p>Fed will announce a new purchase program of iPhones, Hummers and student loan bonds.</p>

2523

<p>:)…</p>

2524

<p>Seriously, even if the Fed does some type of QE or some such monetary policy, how does that help housing? Or unemployment to a discernible degree? Or the fate of the middle class? Or stagnant wages? … This charade of low interest rates helps nobody but those who don’t need the help…and it is pushing the few retail investors still playing the game into riskier assets in search if yield and return…it WILL end badly for many people…</p>

2525

<p>

I think this is so true. This is what they call a “liquidity driven rally” There is so much Fed-printed money out there that needs to be invested. Watching the screens today you could almost see the money pouring out of Treasury bonds and into stocks. </p>

<p>I have started to sell some calls on long positions. Of course, most got run over today. This party will end badly, and I have no idea when that will happen. I know I will be left holding the bag - I just hope it will be a relatively small bag.</p>

<p>I understand rationale for selling DUK, but I also bought it as a longterm dividend play, with a large unrealized gain, so I am not selling. And look what happened to WMT after some bad news shook people out of the stock. It proceeded to soar to alltime highs, and is still going. Several names are at alltime highs, well above their 2007/2008 peak.</p>

2526

<p>Yep…</p>

<p>This is one of the cases where those in charge have to pretend they are doing something.</p>

<p>If the Fed didn’t do anymore, people would complain.</p>

<p>The Fed is just washing the same car, over and over again.</p>

<p>I want to know who is going to buy a house because mortgage rates drop another 1/8 from here?</p>

2527

<p>Yes, if they haven’t purchased yet, an 1/8th or 1/4 is unlikley going to bring them out…And whatbhappens IF rates rise? How can that be good news for housing…though i don’t expect rates to rise in a significant way for many years…see Japan</p>

2528

<p>People can’t get loans anyway so the rates don’t make a difference.</p>

<p>And maybe that is good. If rates ever go up, holders of bonds are going to get destroyed. So are institutions holding mortgages.</p>

2529

<p>Asset prices go up. Those with asset prices that go up spend more [the wealth effect]. So there’s some additional economic activity. Will it be enough? Will it help everyone? No. But it may make some improvement.</p>

2530

<p>Well, you can get a loan, BUT you need to qualify…and why shouldn’t you have to qualify. :)</p>

2531

<p>You didn’t have to qualify before. :)</p>

<p>So what happens when the music stops and asset prices decline?</p>

<p>No crash coming anymore?</p>

2532

<p>No crash coming anymore? </p>

<p>no, not with the steady profits that many if not most US based companies are continuing to report. Maybe they are not rocketing skyward on an unsupportable '“dot com bubble” trajectory, but they are not crashing through the floor. Many large firms are “steady as you go, mate” lean mean money making machines…</p>

<p>And not with the steady decline in personal credit card and overall debt in the US and the increase in the personal savings rate. </p>

<p>I dont see a big decrease in US asset prices coming long term. </p>

<p>the fiscal cliff will be partially solved with a combination of typical post election brinkmanship/dealmaking and the expiration of most of the Bush tax cuts. Those who are lucky to make more than 250,000 will not go hungry if they have to pay the same tax rate as they did in 1998. The rest of the Bush tax cuts will expire, as well they should. The defense cuts wont be devastating- the Defense dept is already moving to less costly way to manage their costs, through technology.</p>

<p>I’m optimistic for the long term. call me naive…</p>

2533

<p>Here’s to hoping that you’re right, MPM…</p>

2534

<p>Steady profits on the backs of employess not seeing meaninful salary increases,increasing costs for those employees healthcare,and more production from these employees…many homeowners have lost a good chunk of their equity ,while they can afford their mortgage payments,the loss of the equity will prevent them from moving up…</p>

<p>Where will the jobs come for those unemployed or underemployed? I think the days of 4% ± unemployment is gone forever, i think 6% -6 1/2% will be the norm…</p>

2535

<p>Menloparkmom, i like your optimism aBout the fiscal cliff. </p>

<p>Phillyfed, I think people would be ecstatic with a 6.5 percent unemployment rate.</p>

2536

<p><a href=“http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/12_Citis_Fitzpatrick_-_Stocks_to_Plunge_Another_15_to_20_files/KWN%20Fitzpatrick%2049.jpg[/url]”>http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/12_Citis_Fitzpatrick_-_Stocks_to_Plunge_Another_15_to_20_files/KWN%20Fitzpatrick%2049.jpg&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>We have to crash. This chart says so.</p>

<p>The coverage of the summer olympics is great.</p>

2537

<p>I agree 6 1/2 % unemplyment would be fine, but how to get there is a concern of mine…i now know more people who have become unemployed in the last 2 months,then i did during the financial meltdown…I also see small business owners i know, saying things have decidedly slowed since spring…Personally, nothing is any different now then at anytime in last 10 years, we have been very fortunate</p>

2538

<p>“i now know more people who have become unemployed in the last 2 months,then i did during the financial meltdown…I also see small business owners i know, saying things have decidedly slowed since spring”</p>

<p>I wonder why that is.</p>

<p>It will be also interesting to see how quickly the unemployed get jobs.</p>

2539

<p>Well, to pur some perspective on it, i didn’t know anyone who lost their job during the meltdown…now i know 3 in last 2 months…not a huge sample…</p>

2540

<p>I think 3 is a lot.</p>

<p>I should become unemployed in 3 weeks or so. Since I weigh unemployment on a scale with my unemployment given the most weight, the unemployment rate is going to skyrocket in 3 weeks. ;)</p>