The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

Parent Cafe
2601

<p>Ok…so you would short the resistance, and then get long if the stock breaks through?</p>

<p>How do you handle a situation like April…where the stock broke it’s support lines…so you would get short…and then in one day the stock gaps through every resistance line?</p>

<p>By selling resistance, and then buying above resistance, by buying support and then selling below support, don’t you get chewed up? </p>

<p>Weren’t you almost 100 percent out? Then you bought a couple of stocks? Now, if the market starts looking weak you are only going to sell to 50 percent cash? So you are loaded up again?</p>

2602

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<p>This is standard traders stuff - you’ve never heard of it?</p>

<p>Yes, a technical trader would play the break.</p>

<p>I’m not a pure technical trader though.</p>

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<p>Yes. This approach works best in trending markets.</p>

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<p>Yes.</p>

<p>I can get in and out pretty quickly.</p>

2603

<p>I have heard of everything you have told me.</p>

<p>That is why I am puzzled by some of your posts. ;)</p>

<p>I have used support and resistance lines, and sometimes I have gotten chewed up.</p>

<p>I have looked at the AAPL chart and I see the stock price moving above and below the Fib lines. Sometimes, the stock hits air pockets. I don’t see how the Fib lines do much. There was a little support around the Fib line in Jun, around the Fib line, not at the Fib line. The rest of the last few months, the stock is all over the place.</p>

<p><a href=“http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/12_Citis_Fitzpatrick_-_Stocks_to_Plunge_Another_15_to_20_files/KWN%20Fitzpatrick%2049.jpg[/url]”>http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/12_Citis_Fitzpatrick_-_Stocks_to_Plunge_Another_15_to_20_files/KWN%20Fitzpatrick%2049.jpg&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>So the chart you posted with the arrows, was bs?</p>

2604

<p>That chart was one of similar patterns. It may happen or it may not. My gut feel is that we do head down short of a bunch of things getting fixed within a month or a little longer.</p>

<p>One of the major banks says that they expect the Fed to announce a $600 billion plan in early September. That might be enough to keep hope alive for a little while.</p>

2605

<p>That is the problem with charts. May happen. May not happen.</p>

<p>I guess the Fed is going to annoy me. :)</p>

2606

<p>Nobody has a crystal ball except for those with inside information.</p>

<p>Since I don’t fall into that category and probably wouldn’t use it even if I did, I just look for something that gives me better than even odds.</p>

2607

<p>Ok…</p>

<p>I like your enthusiasm for trading.</p>

<p>I guess Wed we might have some action.</p>

2608

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<p>I hope that I don’t come across that way.</p>

<p>If I didn’t think it necessary, I wouldn’t trade at all. Just give me the mythical 8% returns and I’d be happy to close my brokerage accounts.</p>

2609

<p>You do come across as enthusiastic. There is nothing wrong with that.</p>

<p>I would love 8 percent returns.</p>

2610

<p>Yea, where are all the financial experts/planners, soothsayers who would go on TV several years ago and say not to get greedy trying to get double digit returns,get an easy 8%, without the risk…heck, iwould be delighted with 4%, with no or little risk…</p>

2611

<p>You might be able to get 4 percent, but you have to lock in your money for 20 years or more.</p>

<p>Do you want to take that chance?</p>

2612

<p>Well, i bet people in Japan wish they did 20 years ago. ;)</p>

2613

<p>That’s true.</p>

<p>I had an opportunity, last year, to buy Tiburon/Belvedere, Ca bonds. Tax free yielding over 5 percent.
15 to 30 years out.</p>

<p>Safer than anything I have ever seen.</p>

<p>I don’t like putting all my money in everything, but I should have put all my money in those bonds. </p>

<p>Then, I could worry about inflation instead of low interest rates and the
US becoming Japan. </p>

<p>I don’t know if the US is going to become Japan. There are differences.</p>

<p>A friend just called me an hour ago and told me he wishes he bought the
Belvedere and Tiburon bonds. The bonds were secured by real estate. The bond owners were ahead of the mortgages. Home prices would have to drop to 50,000 to lose.</p>

<p>[Belvedere</a>, California - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia](<a href=“http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belvedere,_California]Belvedere”>Belvedere, California - Wikipedia)</p>

<p>“Belvedere sits on the south side of the tip of Tiburon Peninsula, a small peninsula that extends into the San Francisco Bay. Many Belvedere properties are renowned for their spectacular views of the Bay Area, Angel Island, San Francisco, Sausalito, the Golden Gate Bridge and Mount Tamalpais. As a result, land values are extremely high. In 2000, 87.6% of the city’s owner-occupied housing units cost more than $1,000,000,[5] compared with 2.3% for California as a whole.[9] Today, the median property price in Belvedere exceeds $5,000,000.”</p>

2614

<p>“I don’t know if the US is going to become Japan. There are differences.”</p>

<p>Isn’t that the mantra of Wall Street lemmings, that IT IS different this time, lol. :)</p>

2615

<p>Yeah…that is the mantra…</p>

<p>But the US is not Japan.</p>

<p>I was looking at Japan’s money supply growth and the growth is about 2.5 percent compared to the US where growth is 8.5 percent (M2).</p>

<p>That alone is a big difference.</p>

2616

<p>I look at things differently…Housing bubble,check…stock market bubble and crash, check…declining interest rates for a long time, check…fiscal policy not changing anything, check…</p>

2617

<p>I look at that too…</p>

<p>But you aren’t going to look at differences?</p>

2618

<p>Also, i said we are becoming Japan,or will become Japan…We are at least a decade behind their same problems,but getting closer each day…and remember in the mid to late 80’sJapan’s annual money supply growth rate declined from 10-11% to 1-2% in mid to late 90’s</p>

2619

<p>Ok…</p>

<p>I kind of see that as a difference between the two countries.</p>

<p>Here is a link that might make you smile…</p>

<p>[A</a> Chart That Should Give Chills To US Housing Bulls - Business Insider](<a href=“http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-09/markets/31311630_1_chart-housing-bulls-ratio]A”>http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-09/markets/31311630_1_chart-housing-bulls-ratio)</p>

2620

<p>:)…not terribly happy to be right</p>