<p>Krlilies, phillyfed may not be right about the 1200 number. 
I am just having fun. :)</p>
<p>Phillyfed, 40 to 50 percent long…at your old age? How long do you get when you really like the market.</p>
<p>I think there is a good chance I will never be 50 percent long again in my lifetime. Not because I am going to be permanently negative. 50 percent is more than enough for me,</p>
<p>Doct, I like your link.</p>
<p>DocT I will read that later but Im pretty glad I didnt know where to put extra money back in 2008 and waited for 2009. Can you imagine if I bot X early 2008?</p>
<p>Dstark, Im just waiting for S&P 1330 .</p>
<p>^^ but the market technicals were horrific and getting worse in early 2008 so you should have sold not bought</p>
<p>I had “extra money” from a house sale and we were trying to figure out which stocks we were going to invest in. Early 2008, X was breaking out of its multi-yr high.</p>
<p>I didn’t sell anything in 2008. For our retirement funds, there was no way I was going to exchange out of those stock funds as it plunged to half its 2007 high value. I waited patiently until spring 2012 and moved them to stable value funds.</p>
<p>krlilies, very nice.</p>
<p>Post 2965.</p>
<p>I think I’m becoming more bearish (probably listening to too many “know it alls” on TV). The bearish case always sounds more rational especially with all the negative hype in the background. That being said, I do love buying those combination put - ratio spreads that result in a net credit, along with my long aapl, cat, vlo, utx positions.</p>
<p>I would prefer to be 60%, but not sure if that will happen…</p>
<p>" That being said, I do love buying those combination put - ratio spreads that result in a net credit,"</p>
<p>:)</p>
<p>Big Bull at times and also a BIg bear,check…naysayer, check…alarmist,check…trying to sell his book, check…scares the crap out of me, check</p>
<p>[HARRY</a> DENT: The ‘Baby Bust’ Is Sending The Dow To 3,000 - Business Insider](<a href=“http://www.businessinsider.com/harry-dent-baby-bust-dow-3000-2012-7]HARRY”>HARRY DENT: the 'Baby Bust' Is Sending the Dow to 3,000)</p>
<p>Fwiw, i agree with his theory, not his size of decline</p>
<p>Phillyfed…</p>
<p>Try opening up this link. It is not hard.</p>
<p>[Harry</a> Dent’s Tactical ETF Shutters After Three Years Of Dismal Performance DENT SPY BND - Investors.com](<a href=“http://news.investors.com/article/621147/201208061755/harry-dent-tactical-etf-folds.htm]Harry”>http://news.investors.com/article/621147/201208061755/harry-dent-tactical-etf-folds.htm)</p>
<p>Just in case you aren’t capable…</p>
<p>"DENT traded fewer than 2,000 shares a day on average the past three months. Some days it saw no trading activity. MATH, which debuted in July 2011, now ranks fourth on Rowland’s Deathwatch List.</p>
<p>DENT charged an annual management fee of 1.65%, way above average and especially painful in view of the fund’s underperformance of both bonds and the stock market the past three years.</p>
<p>DENT lost 5.47% year to date and 13.60% in the past 12 months. By comparison SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) gained 9.91% year to date and 11.19% in the past year. Bonds as a whole, as tracked by Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), returned 3.61% and 6.54% over the same periods while yielding 2.9%.</p>
<p>Since inception on Sept. 18, 2009, DENT lost 13% vs. gains of 31% for the S&P 500 and 7% for bonds.</p>
<p>DENT was a go-anywhere ETF of ETFs that put any amount of money in foreign or U.S. markets, bonds or cash at any time. As of July’s end, half of the portfolio was parked in cash. Some 44% of assets were invested in bonds and 5% in the S&P 500."</p>
<p>I find it interesting that there are pros who can stay wrong for so long. I guess they think that the Keynes quote: “When the facts change, I change my mind, what do you do sir?” doesn’t apply to them.</p>
<p>Not saying I follow his advice, just his theory of demographics, which drove the housing boom, then bust</p>
<p>“DENT was a go-anywhere ETF of ETFs that put any amount of money in foreign or U.S. markets, bonds or cash at any time. As of July’s end, half of the portfolio was parked in cash. Some 44% of assets were invested in bonds and 5% in the S&P 500.”</p>
<p>What is scary is that is close to my portfolio allocation. :)</p>
<p>The criteria to become a pro in the investment field isn’t difficult to meet.</p>
<p>I do think demographics are important.</p>
<p>On Dent from wiki: “In 2000, based on his forecast that economic growth would continue throughout the 2000s, Dent predicted that the DOW would reach 40k, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book. In his book, he also predicted the NASDAQ would reach 13-20k.” </p>
<p>I can understand people following somebody who is wrong from time to time but that wrong???</p>
<p>You tell me.</p>
<p>I am not the one that follows these guys.</p>
<p>Well I can’t tell you. I listen to a lot of guys and try to form an opinion but I probably wouldn’t listen to somebody who comes across as from another planet with predictions that are so outlandish. Even though right now I’m becoming somewhat more bearish, I still tend to trade with the trend with some protection coming from those bearish put spreads that I get for a credit.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>WHAT?!! You were being sarcastic??? But we all piled into CRUS! :)</p>
<p>Meredith Whitney, she was early to the game with her muni bond call, and probably way to negative, BUT, her thesis is correct…Many cities,towns and states are struggling to keep social services intact, as pension obligations fet larger, and tax revenues are declining…</p>