The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

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3401

<p>Ok EMM1, can you back test this trade during a market drop even if it is just a few months?</p>

<p>Looks like you are receiving approximately half the return hedging HYG as you would if you just let things go…which may be fine because I am sure you will be protected somewhat on the downside. Sometimes though, we overthink and we could accomplish what we want im easier ways. For example, just cut your size down in half and put half the money in relatively short term cash instruments and compare returns. You may get a similar return compared to your strategy without the headaches and commission costs.</p>

<p>I don’t think in down markets you are going to get the returns you want. You are long with that strategy.</p>

3402

<p>@dstark I trade options, and I work in finance :stuck_out_tongue: You can take from that what you will.</p>

<p>I’m not saying his trade was delta neutral, nor commenting on whether the trade is good or bad (FWIW it’s something I would put on, just longer dated). I’m just pointing out that claiming an options spread is cash positive when you’re selling longer dated vol against shorter dated vol is deceptive. The bullish side of the trade, if I’m reading it correctly, is the long DITM SPY calls, which leaves the trade with roughly a ~0.4 delta at the point it’s put on to Jan 13.</p>

<p>EMM1 - I like how you’re neglecting to mention that SPXS lost 87% over the same period. I don’t have the time to check your math at the moment, but I’ll do it when I get home tonight.</p>

<p>edit: Yes dstark, that was my point earlier. Most of the time, it makes a lot more sense to just decrease long leverage than increasing long leverage and short leverage to end up with the same net.</p>

3403

<p>I agree with what you said, Collectiv. I am just adding information. I am not criticizing. I don’t expect everything to be covered in a post or two whether they are my posts or yours.</p>

<p>I wouldn’t really be long the jan option— short mar options spreads very often unless the volatility is very high. The money is really made when the volatility drops. So right now, I don’t have march volatilites in front of me, but my guess is the volatilities are too low for me. </p>

<p>Do you like your job? I could make an assumption by reading your posts that you do like your job, or at least your career choice, but I don’t want to do make that assumption.</p>

3404

<p>Can’t seem to sell those FB 10/12 20 puts for .15 (its those .05 steps), did sell IWM 10/12 82.5 for .16</p>

3405

<p>Just curious on how gasoline has been in everyone else’s neck of the woods. Since I filled up earlier this week the local price has gone up about $0.75 a gallon. I’ve seen a number of stations where even regular is over $5/gal. (Los Angeles area)</p>

<p>On the news they said there’s no real explanation for what’s happening other than we’re getting squeezed because they can.</p>

3406

<p>“EMM1 - I like how you’re neglecting to mention that SPXS lost 87% over the same period.”</p>

<p>In fact, unless the numbers generated by ETFreplay are a complete fraud, they take the changes of SPXS into account. Again, the relevant question is not how much SPXS changes per se, but rather the ratio of the change in SPXS to the cver each rebalancing period.
dstark:</p>

<p>BGZ did not exist for most of 2008, but 86 HYG 14 SDS is close to 92 HYG 8 SPXS, so I ran that and got a loss of 5.1% for the year–not bad, considering. I looked at the details of the volatility analysis on the website and realized it is not exactly what you would need to get the hedging as close as possible to right. You would want to run a weekly HYG/SPSX or SDS calculation using an Excel spreadsheet–something I don’t know how to do. For the period prior to the advent of HYG and the leveraged ETFs, you could use VWEHX as a proxy for HYG, calculate its relationship to SPY, and go from there.</p>

3407

<p>Not happening here - its been 4.29 for a long time.</p>

3408

<p>$3.59 about 60 miles outside of Atlanta.</p>

<p>California had a major refinery fire a few months ago and there have been some smaller outages recently. There may also be the switchover to Winter Fuel at the refineries too. The expectations are that the price spike in CA should be relatively short-lived.</p>

3409

<p>I sold the fb oct20 19 puts instead of the weeklys this week for 0.15. Not very many though.</p>

<p>I sold more aig puts.</p>

<p>That is all I did this week. I have no clue what is happening in the markets or stocks right now. I will check later.</p>

<p>There are rumblings of cheaper tablets coming to the market.</p>

<p>When I saw all those smart phones at best buy, I thought back to the days I wanted to buy a Will Clark baseball card. I went to a card show at
Moscone Center, or the Cow Palace, a place like that. A huge arena. I
could not believe how many Will Clark baseball cards there were. When I saw the thousands of Will Clark baseball cards, I thought, what is the big deal? There are so many cards, they can’t be worth much. I did not buy
any cards, and after the show, never did again. </p>

<p>There are so many phones. They aren’t worthless, but AAPL trades at a
very high price to sales ratio because its profit margins are so high. If
the profit margins change…</p>

<p>I hate talking about these tech companies because I have no idea what
there r&d is. It is not public information. For all I know, aapl is going to cure cancer so, I can never be sure.</p>

<p>A friend of mine works for IBM and he is super optimistic about the future. Knowledge is expanding rapidly. The ability to share knowledge is
growing so fast and this will change society. </p>

<p>I don’t know if anybody commented on this, but we are going to be able to walk into a SBUX with a smartphone and the order will be entered
automatically and the bill will be charged and paid automatically. I don’t know what this is going to do to jobs, but that is a pretty nice app.</p>

<p>I saw a blip that stated that 20 percent of the people saw incomes increase last year. That doesn’t sound too good to me. More and more
wealth is concentrated in fewer hands. I am not talking politics. That is very bad economics.</p>

3410

<p>EMM1, SPXU is the more established product. I don’t know why you keep talking about the former BGZ. </p>

<p>If you are happy with the backtesting and can deal with the potential losses, go for it. If it doesn’t look like the trade is working the way you want, you can always stop. You can start small.</p>

3411

<p>I was going to do the Oct 20 19 fb puts but figured that if I need to I’ll roll out the Oct 12 20’s to that.</p>

3412

<p>I am not in love with the fb trade at all. I see that fb did not have that good a day today. Znga is crushed. </p>

<p>If my daughter said she wanted to sell the fb oct 19 puts, I wouldn’t be thrilled. :)</p>

<p>I have one of my smallest fb positions in awhile. My put selling overall is very low.</p>

3413

<p>FB was crushed because znga was crushed - next week is only a 4 day week. I didn’t sell that many fb puts though.</p>

3414

<p>I think the stock market is open is 5 days next week. You have Monday off? Me too. :)</p>

3415

<p>CMG down to 279 thanks to Einhorn. Looks like a buy to me.</p>

3416

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<p>That refinery fire was the excuse they gave for our prices spiking a few months ago. ;)</p>

<p>dstark, have you seen the new advertisements that have been put in some subways? It’s a painting of a store with a QR-code underneath every item in it. Just take a picture of the code and the item will be shipped to your front door by the next day. I’ve seen similar things for restaurants where you take a picture when you get off the train, and it’s waiting for you when you get to the upper level.</p>

3417

<p>Bond market is closed on Monday. Stock market is open.</p>

3418

<p>RacinReaver, no. I haven’t seen those things. Thanks for the info. I like the info. </p>

<p>Have you tried taking a picture to buy a product or a meal?</p>

<p>Am I going to have to buy a smartphone now? :)</p>

<p>Cbreeze, thanks.</p>

3419

<p>From [Ultrabook</a> sales fall short of expectations - Computerworld](<a href=“Ultrabook sales fall short of expectations | Computerworld”>Ultrabook sales fall short of expectations | Computerworld) :</p>

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<p>There are some ultrabooks that have shoe-horned in an optical drive. </p>

<p>When the Haswell chips start shipping, I will take a serious look myself at getting an ultrabook.</p>

3420

<p>What will an ultrabook do that a more typical laptop won’t?</p>

<p>It is lighter and thinner and…?</p>