The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

Parent Cafe
3481

<br>

<br>

<p>Oh.</p>

<p>I just use the numbers after reading the theory.</p>

3482

<p>Unemployment new claims drops by 30K? Sorry, I just don’t believe it. Someone is screwing with the numbers or getting bad data.</p>

3483

<p>I don’t think that you can mess with the data on the first-time claims data. That stuff comes straight in from the states.</p>

<p>What I see is more part-time hiring at the retail level to avoid paying benefits to full-time employees. Hiring may be up or people may be giving up; but the quality of a lot of the new jobs in September wasn’t very good if you look at the details.</p>

3484

<p>"Sorry, I just don’t believe it. Someone is screwing with the numbers or getting bad data. "</p>

<p>Since razorsharp doesn’t believe it and probably Jack doesn’t either - that’s good enough for me!</p>

3485

<p>I got a bridge to sell you witchdoctor.</p>

<p>Softbank is buying 75% of Sprint Nextel. You would think that a company with word bank in it might be a bank. Apparently is it one of Japan’s mobile telephone carriers. I guess we now know why there was such a run up in S.</p>

3486

<p>I think that VZ is moving into the S&P 400 - phone service is a good business these days.</p>

3487

<p>Jack explains himself:</p>

<p>

[Jack</a> Welch: I Was Right About That Strange Jobs Report - WSJ.com](<a href=“http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444897304578046260406091012.html]Jack”>http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444897304578046260406091012.html)</p>

3488

<p>That’s a bit different than those “Chicago guys” manipulating the data and that he is being treated as if this is “soviet russia or communist china” Maybe in communist China, he would be taken out and shot.</p>

3489

<p>I like this quote too:</p>

<p>

</p>

3490

<p>The unemployment claims use state data and will use estimates sometimes though they did not do that this week. Apparently one state was positive when it was expected to be negative. The only conspiracy that I could see is if you had a state hire a bunch of people to support the President. Maybe that is happening but the state agencies doing the hiring would have to fit it within their budgets and I assume that there’s oversight for that. It’s also not bad if people are really getting jobs, hopefully that will continue into the new year.</p>

<p>There have been complaints about the media’s (and politicians’) obsession with the headline number. As with a lot of numbers (including earnings reports) it’s useful to read about the details of where that number came from along with looking at the trends. I do know of new grads that haven’t found work yet and are applying to grad school for next fall. That’s a lot of time to be doing part-time minimum-wage work if it can be found.</p>

<p>I’ve read complaints over the unemployment numbers for years.</p>

<p>I’ve also read complaints over the CPI for years. I think that the CPI complaints are valid - as they seem to change the methodology more frequently. There have been changes to the employment rate calculation over the years.</p>

3491

<p>I sold the es futures in the overnight session because the stock market only had one way to go.</p>

<p>Bummer.</p>

<p><a href=“http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/12_Citis_Fitzpatrick_-_Stocks_to_Plunge_Another_15_to_20_files/KWN%20Fitzpatrick%2049.jpg[/url]”>http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/12_Citis_Fitzpatrick_-_Stocks_to_Plunge_Another_15_to_20_files/KWN%20Fitzpatrick%2049.jpg&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>And…</p>

<p>Really? </p>

<p>What a surprise! Austerity doesn’t work when there is a lack of demand.
Who would have thought that? </p>

<p>I think supply…and demand is still taught in economics classes. There is something called demand, I think.</p>

<p>It is hard to tell these days with what is printed and said.
[Why</a> Austerity May Be Over in Europe | Daily Ticker - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“Why Austerity May Be Over in Europe”>Why Austerity May Be Over in Europe)</p>

3492

<p>Need to read the footnotes too. It appears to be a reporting anomaly. </p>

<p>“Here’s what actually happened. The state did report weekly jobless claims but did not process and report its quarterly claims number (when many people have to reapply for benefits for technical reasons as opposed to being newly laid off). As a result, there wasn’t the expected spike in claims that normally happens at the start of the quarter.”</p>

<p>“It is unclear why that happened or how unusual that is. What is clear is that the expected spike in claims around the start of each quarter was smaller this time than usual. Coupled with the seasonal adjustment (that expected a bigger increase), that pushed down the headline figure.”</p>

<p>[Another</a> Jobs Report Prompts Head Scratching - US Business News - CNBC](<a href=“http://www.cnbc.com/id/49372827]Another”>Why Jobless Claims May Not Be as Good as Market Thinks)</p>

3493

<p>

</p>

<p>There’s already a large impact in the business world due to 3d printers, and I only expect it to get bigger. I’m looking at purchasing a high fidelity printer aimed at jewelry makers to do investment casting. Instead of making a model of each ring in a wax mold, you can instead design it on a computer and print 20 at a time. Each one as identical (or sized) exactly as you want.</p>

<p>Let’s say you design the manual handle for a garden hose. Design it on the computer (which you’re doing by now anyway) and print it for a fully functional handle. See exactly how it feels in your hand, and figure out if it’s a little to big or small. Needs and adjustment? Just make the change on the computer, and it’ll be ready later in the afternoon. Cost of materials for most of these techniques is negligible (pennies per cubic inch, most models are made 80% hollow).</p>

<p>Imagine you’re an orthopedic surgeon that needs to implant an artificial hip. Design exactly the shape you want for that patient and print it out. With mixed-metal techniques you could actually have a ball encased by another material which would be impossible to manufacture seamlessly any other way. Same idea with dental work. Make fully customized crowns/teeth/etc.</p>

<p>Another very exciting field is that of 3d scanners. The ability to scan the entire surface of an object, and then replicate it immediately will certainly help out with rapid replacement parts for all sorts of things. Just imagine if we could get 3d scans of our body with a non-invasive imaging technique (I actually wouldn’t be surprised if this exists already.).</p>

<p>Edit: I should also mention at a recent manufacturing trade show I went to probably the largest fraction of booths involved 3d printing in some form or another. Either a company selling a printer (or rebranding another company’s printer and selling it) or selling a 3d printing service where you send them the CAD file, and they send you the part.</p>

3494

<p>Seimens has the Cerec product for dentists and has had it since the early 1990s and it’s used to make crowns and onlays. They remove part of the tooth and then take a picture with a 3D camera that goes in your mouth after painting the tooth with a spray. The software than allows you to design a crown or onlay or will try to create one on its own. It takes pictures of the surrounding teeth and the teeth above or below and tries to create a solution that fits with the surrounding teeth.</p>

<p>Once a solution is found or the dentist does a hand-design, they push a button and the computer sends instructions to a device that makes the crown. The device takes a porcelain block and grinds a crown or onlay based on the computer design. It’s very nice because you can do everything in one appointment. The usual approach is to take a mold and send it out to a lab and put a temporary in your mouth.</p>

<p>I don’t know if you could make crowns by building up material. Crowns undergo incredible stresses. The removal approach seems to be better.</p>

<p>Of course 3D printing could also use the same removal technique. You put a block of something in and a device removes material. This may work out better where the part that you want to make has to be very strong.</p>

3495

<p>RacinReaver, thanks.</p>

<p>There was an article today about 3d printing.</p>

<p>[How</a> 3D Printers Are Reshaping Medicine - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3d-printers-reshaping-medicine-150720107.html;_ylt=A2KLJRuUJXdQ2DIAlwGiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4ajZ1MjNyBG1pdANDTkJDIFRvcCBTdG9yaWVzBHBrZwNmMzNmZTIzZi0wNjRmLTMwODMtOTM1OC04OTE2NDM4NDE3NDYEcG9zAzMEc2VjA01lZGlhQkxpc3RNaXhlZExQQ0FUZW1wBHZlcgNkNDVkNzEyOC0xM2I4LTExZTItOTRiNC0zZjNkNjA0ZjUzYTM-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3]How”>http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3d-printers-reshaping-medicine-150720107.html;_ylt=A2KLJRuUJXdQ2DIAlwGiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4ajZ1MjNyBG1pdANDTkJDIFRvcCBTdG9yaWVzBHBrZwNmMzNmZTIzZi0wNjRmLTMwODMtOTM1OC04OTE2NDM4NDE3NDYEcG9zAzMEc2VjA01lZGlhQkxpc3RNaXhlZExQQ0FUZW1wBHZlcgNkNDVkNzEyOC0xM2I4LTExZTItOTRiNC0zZjNkNjA0ZjUzYTM-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3)</p>

3496

<br>

<br>

<p>Did you buy them back?</p>

3497

<p>I was being sarcastic…</p>

3498

<p>I’ve learned to become less and less affected by buyers’ and sellers’ remorse.</p>

<p>Some guy in the locker room asked me how big a house I have. I told him 1,800 square feet. He said that I could afford something much bigger and more luxurious. My response is that it’s just more to clean, more to maintain, more to heat. He’s a lot younger and I said that houses were generally smaller than they are today - the McMansion era started in the 1990s. Before then, a lot of homes were in the 1,200 to 2,000 size. My wife grew up in places on the order of 500 sq ft.</p>

<p>I didn’t tell him that I bought a new car two weeks ago. I paid about $22,000 for it. It feels just like my previous car which I traded in at 250K miles and gets about 10 more MPG. Sometimes it is hard to get away from frugal if that’s what you’re used to for a long time.</p>

3499

<p>That 1800 sq ft includes the basement?</p>

<p>The bigger the house, the less the family members like each other.</p>

<p>I live in a place that is less than 1900 sq ft now. Love it; although, I have no place for an office. </p>

<p>I have friends that live in smaller places than mine. Of course, I have friends that live in places much larger than mine. I don’t think small house owners and large house owners understand each other.</p>

<p>Enjoy your car.</p>

3500

<br>

<br>

<p>Finished basement and loft.</p>

<p>I just received an email on Fidelity where they have a website dedicated to The Fiscal Cliff. In true Fidelity style, they don’t tell you what to do. They offer suggestions on what to do if various things happen along with the risks and potential rewards of those ideas. That’s their approach when they get a lot of phone calls on a topic.</p>

<p>It will take a while to go through all of those pages. I don’t know whether or not I need to. Basically my approach is that things are going to be really bad if we fall off. If it’s resolved, than I think that things will be unsure outside of Bernanke dropping $40 billion pounds of sugar every month.</p>

<p>In this mode, I’d stand aside or go into stock-picking mode (which is more work than I care to do ).</p>