The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

<p>It happens from time to time; not very often. Sometimes it’s just a mistake.</p>

<p>Yeah - they’re saying that it was there printing company that put it out too early. I was planning on selling it around 12:30 and it had already dropped like a rock. I’m only protected down to 715.</p>

<p>It was stupid for GOOG to purchase motorola. The former CEO would not have bought that dog.</p>

<p>AAPl dropped 10 percent. bought some</p>

<p>I just looked at goog. I had no idea what was going on today until I read this thread.</p>

<p>That was a pretty unfortunate press release. I guess goog’s forward looking comments are going to be crucial to the stock’s near time performance.</p>

<p>Maybe you guys saw this.</p>

<p>[Google</a> Shares Slammed! Company Misses Estimates in Premature Earnings Release | Breakout - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“Google Shares Slammed! Company Misses Estimates in Premature Earnings Release”>Google Shares Slammed! Company Misses Estimates in Premature Earnings Release)</p>

<p>This might be spun positively, but I think this is a negative for the industry.</p>

<p>[Google</a> Unveils $249 Chrome Laptop - WSJ.com](<a href=“Google Unveils $249 Chrome Laptop - WSJ”>Google Unveils $249 Chrome Laptop - WSJ)</p>

<p>[Google’s</a> Acquisition Of Motorola Is Looking Like A Mess Right Now | Earnings | Minyanville’s Wall Street](<a href=“http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/earnings/articles/google-earnings-goog-aapl-amzn-lnkd/10/18/2012/id/45135?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo]Google’s”>http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/earnings/articles/google-earnings-goog-aapl-amzn-lnkd/10/18/2012/id/45135?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo)</p>

<p>How do I get out of this today - I have 10/20 625 - 765 call spread and 745 - 715 put spread. Do I hold until tomorrow, or try to get out of this?</p>

<p>As Harvey Pitt said, “You snooze, you lose.”</p>

<p>You may not be able to get out today. If the stock doesn’t reopen, the options won’t reopen.</p>

<p>Maybe the stock will trade differently after the conference call.</p>

<p>Well I wasn’t snoozing and was in the process of putting in my order to get out when the drop occurred - 4 hrs early</p>

<p>I can’t tell if your spreads are debit or credit spreads? </p>

<p>Did you buy or sell the 625 calls? Did you buy or sell the 745 puts?</p>

<p>Goog is up to 702…</p>

<p>I see Msft’s earning weren’t too good either.</p>

<p>I bought 625 calls and sold 765 calls, I bought 745 puts and sold 715 puts. I’m even money wise at 715.</p>

<p>More floor traders bite the dust.</p>

<p>[Cooling</a> the Pits: ICE Yelling Ends - WSJ.com](<a href=“Cooling the Pits: ICE Yelling Ends - WSJ”>Cooling the Pits: ICE Yelling Ends - WSJ)</p>

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<p>I am really not sure how to get out of that trade but I suspect the stock will be volatile tomorrow and I would leg out of each side as the stock swings higher and as it swings lower. On the other hand, the stock may settle at around 715. Several analysts still rate the stock as a buy.</p>

<p>It is fairly easy to get out of that trade. Right now, the trade is long the 625 calls which will become stock tomorrow.</p>

<p>The major questions are will the stock rally above 715 tomorrow and what position the trader wants in the stock.</p>

<p>“I would leg out of each side as the stock swings higher and as it swings lower”</p>

<p>I always read stuff like this in blogs and the internet. I am amazed how many people claim to get the swings right.</p>

<p>I think there might be a little selective memory at work.</p>

<p>The stock is down 10, it has to be a buy. It is going to swing back. I guess stocks down 10 have to rally. Stocks never go down 20. :)</p>

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<p>Ok never mind. I was trying to be helpful, but what do I know.</p>

<p>Hey. If you think you can get the swings right go for it. You can buy strangles to protect yourself a little bit. But they might be expensive after a move like goog had today.</p>

<p>I bet there were people today that were trying to pick bottoms in goog.</p>

<p>[GOOG</a> Basic Chart | Google Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“GOOG Interactive Stock Chart | Alphabet Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance”>GOOG Interactive Stock Chart | Alphabet Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance)</p>

<p>Maybe in the morning? A little below 740? 710? Maybe 710 will still work out.</p>

<p>Picking a spot in 680s looks good right now.</p>

<p>Razorsharp, sorry I snapped there.</p>

<p>Doct, This loss is not that big a loss right now and I am sure you will think of a strategy. There is probably another put spread in your future. :)</p>

<p>I don’t know what’s going to happen with goog today. There several different things people are going to do today. Some will come in after the large price drop, some will double down on their losing position and some will unload at various price levels. This stock is a darling of the hedge fund industry and I know there are folks out there trying to talk it up. I may sell the calls around 10 am or earlier if the price is up to 705 or so and hold onto the put spread until the end.</p>

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<p>Swing trades refer to trades that are held for longer than one day. This is a one day trade - not a swing trade.</p>

<p>The trade is at a loss of 15 pts right now. If GOOG goes to 715, there is no problem and that would be wonderful. Of course the stock could go down 15 and the loss becomes 30. It’s a case of probability. It could go up 15 or down 15 but all other things being equal, it should end up back at 700. if the objective is to minimize the 15 loss and i cannot predict the future, but I believed the stock price would move up and down, I would take the price of each leg and put a limit order equaling half of the historical range after earnings. For example, if the historical range was 15 points, I would place a limit order at 7.5 points above the price of each leg. If the stock moves up by 7.5, that leg would go off. If the stock moved down, that leg would go off. I may still suffer a loss, but the loss would be less than 15 points and it would give me the highest probability of recovering the other full loss. </p>

<p>My approach is hitting singles. The other approach is to bet it will move a lot one way or the other and hope that way is up. If it goes down not up the loss gets bigger.</p>