<p>BCEagle91…I am going to keep that last Apple post in mind.</p>
<p>ellemenope…:)</p>
<p>Yeah… my boss couldn’t keep his disgust for Amzn’s valuation out of his decision making process. </p>
<p>He got a little carried away. :)</p>
<p>12,000 before 13,500…</p>
<p><a href=“Opinion | My Faith-Based Retirement - The New York Times”>Opinion | My Faith-Based Retirement - The New York Times;
<p>"The bull market ended with the bursting of that bubble in 2000. My tech-laden portfolio was cut in half. A half-dozen years later, I got divorced, cutting my 401(k) in half again. A few years after that, I bought a house that needed some costly renovations. Since my retirement account was now hopelessly inadequate for actual retirement, I reasoned that I might as well get some use out of the money while I could. So I threw another chunk of my 401(k) at the renovation. That’s where I stand today. "</p>
<p>Hard to blame the market for this guys problems.</p>
<p>That is a pretty gloomy article in many ways…</p>
<p>I don’t know what old people are going to do as they age. People haven’t saved enough.</p>
<p>One thing that is not mentioned is inheritance. I think there are trillions that are going to be inherited…maybe this will help a few…</p>
<p>BCEagle91…what did you do to get through the tech bubble and then the collapse?</p>
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<p>They work. My mother worked into her 80s and she was a nurse though she did more charge and admin as she got older. This guy plans to work. I plan to work whether I can retire or not.</p>
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<p>It may but it’s not something that should be counted on.</p>
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<p>I sold before the effects of the crash on big-cap tech (not talking internet stocks). Then I loaded up on gold, silver, and energy.</p>
<p>Edit: the thing that helped my 401K the most was Fidelity BrokerageLink. This was an option in our 401K plan that allowed us to buy stocks, mutual funds, bonds, CDs, even physical gold. It cost us $200/year for the option but the company later made it free. If I were restricted to the options in our regular 401K, the best I would have done is to make money market rates. The rest of the funds got killed. It’s something that I recommend to everyone at work that asks me about investing.</p>
<p>Edit 2: I had a look around for documentation on BrokerageLink - apparently there isn’t any information publicly available from Fidelity. What’s out there are specific plans from employers and some information in discussion forums. It appears that there are considerable variations in what BrokerageLink plans provide. Most offer additional mutual funds (up to all of Fidelity and others). Some offer ETFs. It appears that the plan that we have that offers mutual funds, etfs, stocks, bonds and other things is quite generous. It appears that the company believes that we’re able to manage individual stocks reasonably well.</p>
<p>I don’t think planning on working in their 70’s and 80’s is a good idea for most people.</p>
<p>“I sold before the effects of the crash on big-cap tech (not talking internet stocks). Then I loaded up on gold, silver, and energy.”</p>
<p>I guess that worked. :)</p>
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<p>I don’t know if people will have a choice. If you’re in your 40s and 50s right now, it would be a good time to get your health in order so that you can work in your 70s and 80s. That’s besides improving your quality of life. The author also wrote:</p>
<p>“My body creaks and groans. My eyes aren’t what they used to be. I don’t sleep as soundly as I did just a few years ago. Lately, I’ve been seeing a lot of doctors, just to make sure everything still more or less works.”</p>
<p>His picture is there too - he looks like he could stand to lose weight.</p>
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<p>I’ve been pretty lucky for the last 20 years.</p>
<p>Yeah… I look at people around age 75 …definitely 80…physically and mentally there is a large decline…</p>
<p>My mother in law was in great shape in her 70’s…but she turned 80 and she is slowly falling apart.</p>
<p>My parents can’t work now. Their ages are 84 and 78.</p>
<p>I have a friend who is 79. I hope he is not reading this. He is declining.</p>
<p>I am declining. Mentally too. I am 55. I am not as mentally quick as I used to be and my memory isn’t as good.</p>
<p>I knew mentally I was declining in my 30’s. I was getting a little slower…just a tiny, tiny bit. Like an older baseball player. That teeny tiny difference can be huge on a trading floor…just like a baseball field.</p>
<p>Anyway…the last couple of years…I am noticing…I am slowing down…luckily, I started from a high level. Lol. I can still work…but at 75… There better be new discoveries in healthcare. :)</p>
<p>“I’ve been pretty lucky for the last 20 years.”</p>
<p>I am sure there was skill and good decision making involved too. You are a smart guy.</p>
<p>I don’t believe that because somebody had the luck and skill though…that means the majority should and could have the same luck and skill.</p>
<p>It is mathematically impossible. :)</p>
<p>So…although I read the argument often… I did it…you could have done it…you should have done it…I don’t like that argument. (I am not saying
you are making this argument).</p>
<p>If everybody tried to sell tech stocks…</p>
<p>Who would have been the buyers? ;)</p>
<p>So…I like to cut people like the guy in the article some slack.</p>
<p>Most people I know have made poor investment decisions.</p>
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<p>There would be buyers at reasonable prices.
Those with no real reason to exist would go out of business.</p>
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<p>There has been a big move to dividends stocks in the last three years. At least you get something, even if the stock price doesn’t do what you want it to do.</p>
<p>I was pretty lucky to decide to learn technical analysis a little before the crash. I was lucky to find someone to do some analysis for my major holding at the time and suggest that it was time to get out (very hard for me to do because it had done so well for the prior decade). I was pretty lucky to learn how to short around the end of 2000. Also to do a bunch of research on precious metals and energy stocks in 2000 and 2001.</p>
<p>I’m also lucky to have found three to five people that seem to be pretty skilled in navigating the markets - in many cases, I’ve just made trades based on their timing suggestions.</p>
<p>There’s a tech stock that I follow. Son interviewed there - thought he had the job - and then never heard from them. They are in the news winning military contracts on a regular basis. But their stock price has been stuck in a range for a few years. Seems like people like to trade it rather than own it. It’s hard to be bullish on military contractors with all of the budget cut stuff in the news - even if one is doing well. So I just keep an eye on it.</p>
<p>What do you do for retirement? It seems like many make bad choices. Marrying the wrong person? Getting divorced? Pretty expensive choice to make - both on the parties and especially on any kids involved. Should we be bailing out people with financial difficulties because they got divorced?</p>
<p>On a related matter, do we forgive student loans?</p>
<p>[News</a> Headlines](<a href=“http://www.cnbc.com/id/47171658]News”>Student Loans: The Next Bailout?)</p>
<p>“Second is the issue of “moral hazard,” that is, rewarding and implicitly encouraging imprudent behavior rather than punishing it. (Of course, it is easier for the public at large to demand that over-leveraged banks be punished for imprudence than 24-year-olds trying to further their education.)”</p>
<p>For many college students, student loans pay for housing and food on a nice campus in addition to the educational parts. They also pay for recreational facilities, recreational events, and other things which many people would benefit from; not just college students. So do we forgive these loans? There’s a proposal to forgive private loans - whack the bankers; no the Federal Government. I actually sympathetic on the student loan issue - basically change the mix more towards grants - yes, fewer people would be able to go to college but I think that would be a good thing.</p>
<p>" If everybody tried to sell tech stocks…</p>
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<p>There would be buyers at reasonable prices."</p>
<p>Right…and none of the sellers would be lucky…</p>
<p>Which is my point…everybody can’t be lucky.</p>
<p>So I do cut people some slack.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean I think we should bail out the guy in the article. I just have some empathy for the guy.</p>
<p>One time I sold Kindercare at 8… Which was a big loss for me…</p>
<p>Shortly there after the stock was zero. Very shortly. I got really, really lucky there. </p>
<p>I wrote earlier about a stock I was selling…but I couldn’t get it all off…and the stock went pretty much to zero. Unlucky there. :)</p>
<p>What do you think should be done with the student loans?</p>
<p>Ok…i thought your last paragraph was in quotes…</p>
<p>I have to think about it…</p>
<p>Getting some exercise…</p>
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<p>Our 401K has the same option with T Rowe Price and I put $5K each on 4 stocks in 1999–CSCO, EMC, JDSU, and C. Worked wonders for a while, but now all are underwater (although EMC is almost at break even point).</p>
<p>My problem is that I just want to find a good growth stock and ride that stock into the sunset. I can’t tell you how many stock parties I should have left when the leaving was good (hello? Can we say Big Pharma Companies in the 90s?). I seem to be able to find good companies, but I need someone on my team to get me OUT of those companies at the right time…</p>
<p>What I learned is that “buy and hold” can be very dangerous to your wealth! Now I’m into “buy and keep a jaundiced eye on your holdings” mode…</p>
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<p>Write them off after 30 years.</p>
<p>Losses decrease the amount of money for future loans.</p>
<p>I think that there should be a decrease in overall Federal student loans made available.</p>
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<p>This is what everyone except for the adrenaline-junkie trader wants. Effortless returns. I’d love that too. But it doesn’t exist. Mostly. I only have one stock that I’ve held for ages and continue to hold (well, they were acquired recently but I’m happy to hold the company that bought them out).</p>
<p>At the moment, I have about six or seven positions in total. There are three where I trust management. The others are executing well or in areas seeing growing profits and those are hold-for-a-while stocks. Everything is only a trade eventually.</p>
<p>At some point, I expect to be in some buy-and-hold dividend stocks for a long time and not worry too much about stock price. This is what my mother is doing now and it works for her. She just needs the income.</p>
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<p>Owning a company has a couple of aspects. First - can you trust management and the economy? If you can trust management and their ability to deal with the economy over the long run, then you may have a company that you can buy and hold for the long-term.</p>
<p>The second aspect is the tendencies towards extremes in valuation - stocks get overvalued and undervalued. Can you ride those out over time? I think that you can only do this in rare cases. In most cases, you’re better off taking profits during bubbles and buying them back later when the crash comes a long.</p>
<p>BCEagle91… I like your last post.</p>
<p>Student loans…i dislike them. They increase college costs. Just look at what happens when the mortgage market dries up…home prices drop. I would like to see fewer loans and the price of attending college drop. I think rates should be kept low…but I think most people can pay off their loans so far…and they should…even as you say…if it takes 30 years.</p>
<p>The student loan crisis will not have the same effect to the economy as the mortgage
crisis…because student loans should not all go bad at once.</p>
<p>I would love to find a good growth stock and then sit on my a@@, but even when I have one…I can’t help selling some shares. :)</p>
<p>When the pharma companies were in their growth stages…elemenope…I loved those too.</p>
<p>Dividend stocks…I have a few…</p>
<p>When I started in the late 70’s…there was a rule…buy stocks when the stock market yields 6% and sell stocks when the market yields 3%. </p>
<p>I guess that rule has been overturned.</p>
<p>CJES is an undervalued stock. It is so undervalued, I have lose money on it. I don’t understand why. I look at Amazon’s valuation or CMG’s valuation and I go crazy.</p>
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<p>So I am learning…</p>
<p>BCE, thanks for that NYT article link. Otherwise I would not have seen it. I think people in his situation get a lot of comfort from the idea that they have lots of company. Some have good reasons for being near retirement with little in savings. But that guy strikes me as a total rationalizing idiot. </p>
<p>I got blown out of the market in 1987 and stayed in Tbills for years. My 401k was 100% cash until the mid 90s! I slowly ventured back into stocks just in time for 2001, and again took some big losses at the lows. At that point (after getting shaken out twice) I decided I would keep a portion of my retirement portfolio in stocks NO MATTER WHAT. This new strategy helped me ride out the 2008-2009 crash. My retirement account was down huge but I didn’t sell anything out at the lows. Fortunately, just by pure luck my non-retirement account was almost 100% cash. Now I am ok… at least until the next crash. </p>
<p>The “Faith Based Retirement” is a scary concept.</p>
<p>How are natural gas prices affecting Cjes?</p>