<p>Crashes are usually a process so there’s market behavior leading up to a crash. We really don’t have time for a climactic selloff on Feb 6.</p>
<p>BCE, you are correct. Since the momentum is on the upside then the “9244 days pattern” may be reverse now with Feb. 6th as an important market top instead of crash then consolidation in the coming days. I just like to read these ideas and charts that people like to come up with. Sort of like reading your daily horoscope or reading the little paper inside your fortune cookie.</p>
<p>“There is a “9244 calendar days” pattern that apparently determines market bottoms. If you add 9244 days to the market top March 5, 1937 the result is the 6/26/1962 bottom. Then the next date is 10/17/1987 which falls on a Saturday. The market crash was on Oct. 19, 1987. The next date is February 6, 2013. Let us see if the pattern holds.”</p>
<p>Looks like it missed a few. There will be not be a market bottom on the 6th. How many times has the market dropped > 20% without a recession coming afterwards? I don’t see a recession in the near term regardless of the last gdp report. I also don’t see a correction yet - too many are anticipating it - maybe in March or April.</p>
<p>"ick Santelli - I met him in Chicago, probably almost 30 years ago when he was a broker for Sanwa and making occasional appearances on CNBC. He was a good bond market commentator when he would basically relay what he picked up from traders in the pits. Now he is a fulltime employe of CNBC and a self-styled economist. I believe everything he knows he has picked up by osmosis from being on the floor. Not necessarily bad or impossible, but on CNBC it seems like the guy who yells the loudest wins the argument. "</p>
<p>I think he was more than a broker after you met him:</p>
<p>After college, Santelli began trading in 1979 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in various markets, including commodities, Certificates of deposit, Treasuries, and currencies.[1]
During the time he spent as a financial trader and executive, Santelli worked for Drexel Burnham Lambert as the Vice President of Interest Rate Futures and Options.[1]</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Agree - I am riding on S & P to that time frame.</p>
<p>DocT
ie, a broker, although I think he was running the desk. </p>
<p>[Rick</a> Santelli](<a href=“http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837966/Rick_Santelli]Rick”>http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837966/Rick_Santelli)</p>
<p>At a large bank they give thousands of people the title of “Vice President” and they give you a job. Years later it is easy to describe your job as “Vice President FOR xyz” … sounds so much more important than, “I was a Vice president doing xyz”</p>
<p>wikipedia says he was a trader - I didn’t think that is the same thing as a broker.</p>
<p>I think NJRes could be correct. I like his post number 4726.</p>
<p>From the link…</p>
<p>“Santelli began his career in 1979 as a trader and order-filler at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in a variety of markets including gold, lumber, CD’s, T-bills, foreign currencies and livestock.”</p>
<p>An order-filler is a broker. I don’t know if the term trader was a poetic license. Did Santelli make actual trading decisions? Did he trade for himself?</p>
<p>The Drexel history sounds like a floor broker with a desk. I agree with NJRes.</p>
<p>From Fast Money, I don’t think Steve Grasso is a trader. I think he is in sales.</p>
<p>I don’t get who is what on any of those shows. I always assumed Grasso is a trader. So who is or was and who isn’t or wasn’t?</p>
<p>Don’t know about the rest of the panelists. I think the rest are traders, former traders, managed traders, managed risk, or manage money.</p>
<p>Steve Grasso stands out to me. I have no idea why he is on the show. A relationship between CNBC and the NYSE?</p>
<p>Words from a wise and wealthy friend:</p>
<p>[Old</a> Fool Notes - 02/02/13 | ^IXIC Message Board Posts](<a href=“^IXIC: Message Board for NASDAQ - InvestorVillage”>Old Fool Notes - 02/02/13 | ^IXIC Message Board Posts)</p>
<p>I agree - the market is going up - that is the pain trade. You’ve got managers and individuals under invested who are going to try and play catch up. The only problem I see going forward is sequestration which looks more and more like it is going to happen. That’s one reason not to put more money into the market or buy protection.</p>
<p>I shopped at JCP. Had not been there in years. I am not sure if the store had a makeover under the new CEO, but it looked a lot better. Some of the prices were amazingly cheap. It is now my favorite clothing retailer.</p>
<p>Based on history, the stock market should have a good year. The months between Nov-Apr are stronger than the other 6 month period. Feb is the weakest month of the stronger 6 month period. Feb should be lackluster going forward if history repeats.</p>
<p>The bull bear nunbers are showing their third most positive reading of the last 52 weeks. That is a short term negative. The percentage of stocks above their 50 day ma is around 90 percent which is extremely high. I believe this has happened fewer than 10 times in the last 100 years. Another short term negative. Margin debt is increasing, but still below all time highs. Long term investors should not care about this. These short term indicators can flip to more positive levels quickly. </p>
<p>For example, if the stock market flattens out for a month, definitely two months…the percentage of stocks above the 50 dma will decrease dramatically. So the 50 dma indicator can change without a meaningful move down in stocks.</p>
<p>Razorsharp, interesting info on jcp.</p>
<p>JCP recently announced that they were returning to the sales model. They tried everyday low pricing and it was a complete failure. I haven’t been in a JCP in a long time. TJX has done a much better job in navigating retail:</p>
<p>[TJX</a> - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com](<a href=“TJX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com”>TJX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com)</p>
<p>I shop at TJ Maxx and Marshalls for certain things and a few other stores for other things. JCP isn’t on my radar other than they have a store at the local mall.</p>
<p>This article is different than what I thought it would be: [Sex</a>, Lies And Asset Allocation - Seeking Alpha](<a href=“Sex, Lies And Asset Allocation | Seeking Alpha”>Sex, Lies And Asset Allocation | Seeking Alpha)</p>
<p>Doct, I didn’t see anything new from that link.</p>
<p>What did you get out of that link?</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>I got a few nice T shirts made in Pakistan for $5. I opened a JCP credit card and got 20% off. An employee told me that I would receive a coupon for $10 for every hundred dollars I spent. Not a bad deal. JCP won me over, but then again I am not much of a retail shopper.</p>
<p>So what do you think, gang, time to move to cash? Or is the bear going to hang around awhile?</p>