The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

<p>Yep…</p>

<p>

Last time I tried to donate a computer, no one would take it. Nobody wants them if they are more than 5 years old.</p>

<p>And no one will take a CRT monitor. I had to pay to get rid of the last ones I had.</p>

<p>I donated three 17 inch LCD monitors and they went to replace CRT monitors.</p>

<p>The 5-years old thing is reasonable. Things can start failing on older equipment at that time.</p>

<p>[6</a> mREIT Dividends To Consider And Avoid This Week - Seeking Alpha](<a href=“http://seekingalpha.com/article/1298791-6-mreit-dividends-to-consider-and-avoid-this-week?source=cnbc‏]6”>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1298791-6-mreit-dividends-to-consider-and-avoid-this-week?source=cnbc‏)</p>

<p>[Building</a> A Simple Trading System To Diversify Your Portfolio: Part 2 - Seeking Alpha](<a href=“http://seekingalpha.com/article/1299851-building-a-simple-trading-system-to-diversify-your-portfolio-part-2]Building”>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1299851-building-a-simple-trading-system-to-diversify-your-portfolio-part-2)</p>

<p>Do you want to invest in mortgage reits doct?</p>

<p>I did the first day of the month trade many times. Now a 60 percent chance of success isn’t good enough for me. Lol.</p>

<p>The day before Good Friday is usually a bullish day. The day after isn’t and conflicts with the first day of the month positive returns.</p>

<p>Doct, you should pick up a copy of the Stock Market Almanac. Although it is too bearish so far for 2013, there are a lot of seasonality trades…</p>

<p>[Amazon.com: Stock Trader’s Almanac 2013 (Almanac Investor Series) eBook: Jeffrey A. Hirsch: Kindle Store](<a href=“http://www.amazon.com/Traders-Almanac-Investor-Series-”>http://www.amazon.com/Traders-Almanac-Investor-Series-&lt;/a&gt;
ebook/dp/B009F09P2A/ref=tmm<em>kin</em>title_0)</p>

<p>"
Published every year since 1968, the Stock Trader’s Almanac is a practical investment tool with a wealth of information organized in calendar format. Everyone from well-known money managers to savvy traders and investors relies upon this annual resource for its in-depth analyses and insights. The Stock Trader’s Almanac 2013 contains essential historical price information on the stock market, provides monthly and daily reminders, and highlights seasonal trading opportunities and dangers.</p>

<p>The Stock Trader’s Almanac 2013 is packed with timely insights and targeted analysis to help you navigate turbulent markets and beat the odds in the year ahead. This trusted guide combines over a century’s worth of data, statistics, and trends along with vital analysis you won’t get anywhere else."</p>

<p>By the close of next Monday, the S&P should be at all time highs…</p>

<p>[Do</a> Stocks Show a Bullish Bias at Month’s End?](<a href=“http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/editorial/-66215.cfm]Do”>http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/editorial/-66215.cfm)</p>

<p>I have frequently invested in annaly.</p>

<p>And right now are you? If not? Why not?</p>

<p>Great link by the way…</p>

<p>Last year I was at 70%, this year at 68% which doesn’t mean much. As of Friday I was up 1.05% in my trading accts for this year. This is because of large losses. With selling puts, my probabilities are very high but my profits are low. Last year which was a much more successful year than this so far, I sold puts more consistently. This year - not so much.</p>

<p>Towards the end of last year, when I traded nly, I was not in phase with the stock so I was buying high and selling low. I mean’t to get into it this year but thought it was too high so now I may buy it near its all time high and sell much lower.</p>

<p>I don’t know what last year you were at 70 percent…this year at 68 percent means.</p>

<p>I asked if you were invested in annaly and if not, why not. </p>

<p>Like I said, great link. Lots of info in the mreit link.</p>

<p>“With selling puts, my probabilities are very high but my profits are low.”</p>

<p>Yes…that is right.</p>

<p>Ok…now I see your explanation about annaly. You don’t like it as a multiple year investment?</p>

<p>I have held CIM for several years. I would not trade mortgage REITs.</p>

<p>Several years ago I held it for quite a while but in all honesty I’m not sure that I fully understand their business model.</p>

<p>70% means that 70% of my trades were profitable and this year 68% are. The big difference between this year and last is that my average loss on the losing trades is up somewhat due mainly to poor trading of aapl and goog.</p>

<p>Ok…</p>

<p>I’m not sure either. In a rising interest rate environment, I wonder what happens to these stocks. I think the analysts aren’t sure either. :)</p>

<p>Cim does not have a good looking chart over the last several years. Invested in junk?</p>

<p>I have owned NLY for a couple of years, and it is at a loss. I haven’t added up all the dividends received lately to see if all-in I am still at a loss. I read a very interesting article about NLY on Seeking Alpha (did someone post it here?) that they are changing their corporate organization so they won’t have to report executive compensation. Apparently they pay their top execs an obscene amount of money and prefer not to have to disclose that. One of my best investments over the past several years has been NCT.</p>

<p>People I work with have held nly forever and have done very well. Somebody else I work with who is a very astute investor won’t touch it because he doesn’t understand it. The last few times that I’ve owned it, I pretty much bought at the top and sold at the bottom.</p>

<p>Ok doct, post 6196, thanks for the clarification. </p>

<p>I hope I wasn’t supposed to be clairvoyant enough to understand the prior post that mentioned 70 and 68. :)</p>

<p>Large enough losses can really affect returns even if they occur rarely.
We are in a strong up market. I am worried about the selling put strategy when things shift. You are right about the selling put strategy of high probability of success and low returns. What happens when the market changes and becomes more rocky? </p>

<p>I hope the short duration of the puts saves us from any major losses. Because of the size of your trades, you are probably ok…</p>