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<p>I agree and I think that this affected his judgement but I don’t think that Bernanke was knowingly vindictive - the Fed can’t do that. But I think that it could cause him to make a mistake - perhaps in the wishful thinking category. I hope that he isn’t too proud to admit an error. But organizations are typically loathe to do that. Instead, they like to blame the reader as one Fed governor did today.</p>
<p>BCEagle91, good luck with your daughter.</p>
<p>I dont think Bernanke did anything wrong. The economy does better, qe is going to be curtailed and eventually eliminated. Bernanke was stating the obvious. He was clarifying.
If the economy falters did Bernanke say he would still get rid of qe?</p>
<p>What I really think happened is we had a bunch of traders buying securities at ridiculously high prices in front of the fed. Then they hoped to sell the securities to the fed at even higher more ridiculous prices. Then the fed said we arent going to buy these securities indiscriminately. The buying of securities is data dependent. The data looks better. If the data continues looking better the buy program is cut back or over. </p>
<p>Then we have these traders who dont really want these securities decide after listening to Bernanke they arent going to wait for the fed to act. They will get out now. After all, who really wants to lend money at 1.5 percent for 10 years? </p>
<p>So the traders try to sell. Guess what? There arent any buyers. Everybody sees the same thing at the same time. Who wants to really buy the 10 year at 1.75 or 2 percent? Not as many people as who want to sell. So… Security prices fall. Now the 10 year is 2.5 not 1.5 percent. There are buyers at 2.5 percent. At 3.5 percent, there will be a ton of buyers.</p>
<p>Short term, I think we are ok now. Eventually the 10 year could have a yield of 3.5 percent or so. So… There is still a risk to the downside. But it could take years to get to a 3.5 yield.</p>
<p>Hmmm…</p>
<p>The US market reversed.
Japan was up over 1 percent but is selling off now.</p>
<p>China was almost even for the day. Now the market is down 4 percent there.</p>
<p>Hmmm… Maybe it is a good time to do something else. Who needs this crap? :)</p>
<p>[Lost</a> Decade for Bonds Looms With Growing Return for Equities - Bloomberg](<a href=“http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-23/lost-decade-for-bonds-looms-with-growing-return-seen-for-equity.html]Lost”>http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-23/lost-decade-for-bonds-looms-with-growing-return-seen-for-equity.html)</p>
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<p>Most of the people my age I know can’t see themselves working anywhere for 5-10 years. So many of us have felt the message from companies is we’re disposable, and they won’t hesitate to get rid of us when things turn south. On the flip side, a lot of people are starting to feel the same way about their employer, so I guess it’s becoming a bit more of a two way street.</p>
<p>Makes me realize why so few people my age seem interested in home ownership.</p>
<p>RacinReaver, I love your post. Your post explains a large segment of your age group. </p>
<p>My niece, my nephew, my daughter do not expect to work for the same company for 5 years either. My niece does talk about owning a place though.</p>
<p>One of my best friend’s son landed a great gig… Just great. His father was so happy. Many parents are into security including financial security for their kids. (One reason kids should be careful in asking their parents advice about careers. Parents usually lead in the direction to safety compared to risky and sometimes risky is ok).</p>
<p>After several months working at this great job, a job that can lead to great financial security, and it is a job the son loves, The son tells his father, “I dont know what I am going to do in a year. I might leave this job”. </p>
<p>My friend almost collapsed to the floor. Luckily, the conversation was done by phone and the son couldnt see his father. :)</p>
<p>[76%</a> of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck - Jun. 24, 2013](<a href=“http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/24/pf/emergency-savings/]76%”>76% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck)</p>
<p>bceagle, I’m not sure if I understand your daughters situation correctly, but if she is interested in comp sci, she needs to finish up the bachelors. If she’s a techie, she’s competing with people who all have their bachelors degree. Sure, sometimes people drop out of college when they get that great job offer, but not before. A qualified female in CS can do really well, but she needs the BS. My son’s GF got a job right out of college for 150K starting salary, plus part of the company (probably worth more than the salary). But no way would she have gotten that without a BS. Forget the retail jobs, finish the degree and get internships, and she’s got it made.</p>
<p>I think that the problem that BCEagle’s daughter is having exemplifies a major problem with the way that our economy is currently structured. When I graduated college many moons ago, the idea was that a degree was a ticket for a job. Now, with so many people graduating from college, the degree is not an automatic ticket for anything; instead, the lack of a degree is a barrier to getting in on the ground floor. Thus, a) many young people with college degrees are stuck with large debts and either no job or some sort of low-paying dead end position and b) those without a degree are simply screwed unless they are able to develop some sort of trade-related skill set (auto mechanic, plumber, etc.)</p>
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<p>She is not interested in Computer Science. I pushed her into getting an ASCS which may have been a mistake on my part. She didn’t know what she wanted to do and wasn’t really working on picking something so I picked something for her.</p>
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<p>She actually has three years of college credits because she spent some time exploring various areas. I do not think that she is capable of getting a BSCS from a good state university though. She could get one at one of the weaker colleges in our area but I don’t know how employable those graduates are. There is a huge variety in strength and ability in CS grads and employers know this. We are looking at a BSIT or BSCIS - I am sure that she could complete one of these. Her math skills are decent but not fantastic and they really need to be fantastic to do well in a good CS program. There are students that get by with a relatively weak GPA in CS programs but I’d like her to be in a place where she can get a decent GPA.</p>
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<p>She is a techie but Computer Science isn’t about being a techie. The degree is about mathematics. Computer Science programs also teach you development and other skills. They typically don’t teach tech skills although you should be able to pick those up on your own. Your typical CS program doesn’t teach you about Active Directory, managing networks, administering databases and setting up virtual machine farms. They teach you about file structures, locking, developing networked applications, networking theory, writing database applications, database theory, etc. The CS degree is about theory and development. The IT degree is about managing and administering the computing infrastructure. I think that she is capable of the former but not at a high level. She is easily capable of the latter, if she could get a break in industry.</p>
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<p>I do understand the industry well along with the range in capabilities of a wide range of developers and software engineers. I’ve been in the business since the early 1980s. Your GF may have far more in capabilities than my daughter. Or she may be a better worker or better focused. Not every kid here is a star. The difference in ability and drive between our son and daughter is huge.</p>
<p>Our daughter completed Calculus II (for science and engineering) with an A and she understood the materials. My guess is that about 25% of the population in the US could pass this course so her capabilities are above average but the difference between top 25% and top 10% is really, really huge. It goes up like an asymptotic graph.</p>
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<p>Back in the day, employers were willing to train if you displayed the
raw talent. There are far fewer employers willing to train today - they
want you to hit the ground running. This makes it harder to get that
first job. There’s also a huge variance in what a degree means and that
variance can be attenuated by the individual.</p>
<p>There are job posts for what our daughter is looking for where they list
a high-school diploma is required and an associates degree is preferred.
Some of these places don’t want to pay as much for an IT person which
provides opportunities for those that don’t have a bachelors and I think
that’s fine.</p>
<p>On trades: I had a plumber over to do some work a few weeks ago. I
asked him about how his business was doing. He said that things are
okay and not really growing. He said that they had 30 employees back
in the housing bubble and they are now down to 10. He is aware that
there’s a lot more work in the Boston area and he knows people that
have migrated there for work. Areas where there are a lot of jobs
attract more people to the area. There would have to be a secular boom
(such as shale oil) in an area to maintain employment growth over a
long period of time.</p>
<p>We’ve only been at the job hunt aggressively for three weeks. She had
looked for retail and other jobs before that but she’s doing a few
applications a day that she and I find on the job boards. She doesn’t
have any financial issues and we owe her at least $100K for school or
whatever else she’d like in place of school. So she doesn’t have any
financial stress. But she would like to move to the next stage. We’re
actively working on it. I understand that a lot of people spend a lot
more time and effort before they find a job - so I see this as an
ongoing effort. I’ve been through this before - it’s just that it’s
not something that I care to go through again.</p>
<p>I can understand how hard it is for millenials. School debt, high cost
of living, a tough job market, a workplace where your manager or
employer has a lot of leverage over your life and national and global
problems where it doesn’t look like things are going to get better in
the next couple of years. Hope can be a powerful thing in keeping you
motivated and happy but I think that it has been squeezed out of a lot
of people. This may explain the falling labor participation rate and
things like crazy gun violence in our big cities.</p>
<p>Our son is doing fine and he has a great career ahead of him but he’s
smart as hell and works his tail off. The vast majority are not like
that. What do they do? I guess I can understand blaming the boomers
for their problems too. I’m not sure whether or not that’s valid but
we’re running the show which makes us the easiest to blame.</p>
<p>BCEagle91, post 8270 is a great post.</p>
<p>EMM1’s post is good too.</p>
<p>Advances in technology used to lead to more jobs. Productivity gains used to be shared by labor, management, and shareholders. </p>
<p>Now labor doesnt share much of the productivity gains. Instead, people lose their jobs.
When the technology is adopted and shoppers can walk around a store with their phones as
the cash registers, how many retail jobs will be lost?</p>
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<p>Many supermarkets have had self-checkout technology for many years. Our local Home Depot has this. You typically require one employee to oversee up to four people doing self-checkout. This cuts down on labor and it gives customers a choice. Some people don’t really want to interact with another person for a transaction and some people do. I use the self-checkouts whenever I can as I usually find it faster. I think that younger adults are quicker to use self-checkout from my observations in Boston supermarkets. Whole Foods doesn’t use self-checkout scanners in Boston. They hire a ton of part-time workers to check people out. They’re a full-service place so that’s what customers expect. We were there on Sunday afternoon and they had about nine registers dedicated to food bar takeout along with six registers for regular grocery shopping and there was still a big line for the food bar checkouts.</p>
<p>Yeah, there are a lot of people with good jobs with good wages. If your kids are in that place, then you feel good as a parent.</p>
<p>bceagle, your post makes a lot of sense. I assumed that she was interested in comp sci. That is definitely one of those career fields where interest and ability trump the degree. We encouraged S2 to major in comp sci, because he seemed somewhat interested in it and didn’t have any better ideas, but I wonder if that was a mistake. S1 says he should major in IS, but that degree isn’t available everywhere.</p>
<p>It seems like a worthy endeavor for your daughter to compile her credits and finish up with a BSIT. As EMM1 said, the lack of a degree is a barrier, and even if she gets a job she likes, the lack of it may be a barrier to moving up. It is SO much easier to just finish up the degree before you get married, have kids and are working full time. It took my sister twenty years to finish her degree in accounting, and then encountered age discrimination in the field (the big companies want to hire the new young college graduates), and ended up doing a job that didn’t need a degree at all.</p>
<p>It seems that just having a degree, any degree, from any college, will check the block.</p>
<p><a href=“Labor's Declining Share Is an International Problem - The New York Times”>Labor's Declining Share Is an International Problem - The New York Times;
<p>I did my normal scan of jobs this morning and there are an absolute ton of heavy-programming job postings - every day. I guess many of those job postings are for technologies that reduce labor costs. We’re using energy and technology as leverage to do far more work with fewer people. I look at the tools that my son uses for development and he can create applications that would have taken 20 people to do back in the 1980s and he can do it in far less time. It’s like using modern heavy equipment to doing construction instead of construction workers doing things by hand. Or clearing a field with a bulldozer instead of a bunch of people with garden implements.</p>
<p>" I look at the tools that my son uses for development and he can create applications that would have taken 20 people to do back in the 1980s and he can do it in far less time."</p>
<p>Ooooooh boy. A blow for labor.</p>
<p>“I did my normal scan of jobs this morning and there are an absolute ton of heavy-programming job postings - every day”</p>
<p>Should we increase immigration to fill these jobs? Should we increase immigration to more than fill these jobs… To lower labor costs?</p>
<p>The United States used to want the best and brightest from all over the world to come here and create here. With labor taking it on the chin, is that a bad idea now?</p>
<p>These jobs could be filled by US Residents if the companies provided training to existing or unemployed workers. Some of the Indian Outsourcing companies will hire US College grads and provide a six to ten week training program in in-demand skills so that they can be the US face for outsourcing work to India. If Indian companies can provide this training, to move work to India, why can’t US companies provide this training to keep work here?</p>
<p>The answer is easy: $$$$$.</p>
<p>If you’re an employer, you want inexpensive employees. That may mean bringing them in from overseas if they were trained with current skills. Many of the hot skills aren’t taught in CS programs - you usually learn them on-the-job, in internships on on your own. University courses tend to be behind-the-curve compared to what industry is using.</p>
<p>"The answer is easy: $$$$$.</p>
<p>If you’re an employer, you want inexpensive employees. That may mean bringing them in from overseas if they were trained with current skills."</p>
<p>That’s for sure. It makes me ill when I read about the hot employers such as Microsoft bemoaning the fact that they need more workers from overseas, and trying to pump up the number of people coming here on visas. They have thousands of US applicants lined up already, attempting to get those jobs.</p>
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One reason there are so many is that they never get filled.</p>
<p>Many companies put an absolutely insane set of skill and experience requirements on a position, and as a result either never get candidates, or when they do bring in a person to interview, they can’t pull the trigger because they are sure there that someone better will turn up tomorrow.</p>
<p>Here’s a listing I randomly picked off of indeed.com:</p>
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So you need C++, Java, Windows, Linux, web services programming, socket programming, proxy programming, network programming, web architecture, OO design, encryption, authentication, threat modelling, various Microsoft APIs, in addition to being able to provide technical <em>and</em> project leadership.</p>
<p>Good luck with finding all that with any level of depth and expertise in one person.</p>
<p>This is not atypical.</p>
<p>I looked through the first few pages of listings and saw a half-dozen jobs at companies that I applied to last fall when I was out of work. Either they are growing like crazy or they never filled the positions. My guess is the latter for most of them.</p>
<p>I think some of those skills requirements for a particular job opening are fake. The company posts it to justify the hiring of a foreigner for an H1-B visa. No one fits the skills right to a tee except for the foreigner (nvm if the foreigners resume is padded).</p>