<p>"The timing of losses is very important. If you are on a fixed income and you are spending down your assets, a loss at the wrong time can cause you to run out of money. "</p>
<p>so what do you do?</p>
<p>Are you worried about this issue or are we talking theoretically?</p>
<p>I’m worried about everything including whether or not I wake up tomorrow.</p>
<p>Yeah… Well some of that comes across in your posts. :)</p>
<p>This is the worst year of my life. I hope that isnt coming across in my posts. :)</p>
<p>You gotta work longer…
It can be a different job. Different hours. Different pay. </p>
<p>That will take a lot of financial stress off.</p>
<p>I am working with special olympics. If I stop responding…That is why.</p>
<p>Well the last 16 months or so have been the worst in my life particularly 1 year go this past week.</p>
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<p>Couldn’t you have just gone with any index fund?</p>
<p>Yeah… I almost understand. I hope I never have to understand. </p>
<p>I dont know how I would deal…</p>
<p>This is the worst year if my life. I never imagined certain things…</p>
<p>That is all I want to say. Just want you to know I do think about what you are going thru.</p>
<p>I have to go now…</p>
<p>good luck and hope things go better going forward</p>
<p>Thanks doct.</p>
<p>I hope things get better for you dstark and doct. I wish I had good words of advice.</p>
<p>Razorsharp, The kind words are more than enough. Advice can be very, very overrated at times. Advice can be unnecessary.
So… Thanks. I am hoping things improve. </p>
<p>I guess I better bring this thread back.</p>
<p>So… I am spending time with a former future trader.
And he showed me this chart.</p>
<p>[Coffee</a> Monthly Commodity Futures Price Chart : ICE Futures](<a href=“http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CF/M]Coffee”>Coffee Monthly Commodity Futures Price Chart : ICE Futures)</p>
<p>Although coffee’s cost of production varies, how long can coffee stay priced below the cost of production in many areas?</p>
<p>How do you know the cost is below the cost of production?</p>
<p>[Central</a> Banks Sell Record Sums of US Debt](<a href=“http://www.cnbc.com/id/100852546]Central”>http://www.cnbc.com/id/100852546)</p>
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<p>I used to look at these numbers for individual mining companies. They typically include their production costs per ounce in their earnings reports. BTW, the cost per ounce is usually given per mine so you have to do a little calculation on ounces per mine and costs per mine to get a company figure.</p>
<p>One of the things that I like about listening to Pupluva (either of them) is that they are objective about where they think the economy and markets are going. They may display bias on various views but they’re good at putting those aside when it comes down to making money. Pupluva opened with a monologue on what he feels is a positive economy going forward and he talked about the sectors that he’s interested in. In the short-term he wants to see how companies are guiding for the rest of the year.</p>
<p>Then after his monologue, he has an investor adviser guest that’s bearish for the summer (expecting 10 - 20 percent correction) but really bullish after that going out to 2018.</p>
<p>I’m still thinking that we’re just going to muddle through the summer.</p>
<p>I had a look at the $compq chart and we’re in the middle of a medium-wide channel. I would not buy or sell short here. PSEC is at trendline resistance. It either breaks out or heads back down to the $10.15 area. I have been buying since $10.18. I will add more shares if we head back down again. That may seem like a big range to ride something down but the monthly dividend is $0.11 which allows me to have a lot of patience.</p>
<p>Notrichenough, The futures gentleman I am hanging with traded coffee futures for years on the floor. He spends time watching coffee.</p>
<p>I think if you google coffee futures or coffee prices below the cost of production, some links will pop up.
This is a good web site.</p>
<p>[International</a> Coffee Organization - News from the Executive Director](<a href=“http://www.ico.org/]International”>http://www.ico.org/)</p>
<p>Do you know how futures work?</p>
<p>Coffee prices can stay below the cost of production for awhile.</p>
<p>I started watching precious metals miners right before they started taking off. When metals prices are declining, companies close or sell operations, they lay off staff (Barrick announce layoffs within the last two weeks), and favor their best operations (they focus on their richest mines). They cut back on exploration too. Mining and refining is very energy-intensive (companies can get a few ounces per ton of ore mined), so you can’t operate at a loss for very long unless energy prices look like they will be declining sharply.</p>
<p>This is why you get bull markets in the precious metals. The exploration and production sides are cut to the bone which means that future production will be limited. The miners focus on their richest mines which means that they will have to go after mines with lower potential in the future.</p>
<p>In some ways it is similar with energy but one big difference with energy is that we need it to live. Another is that there are tax breaks for exploration as society feels that it’s important to maintain supply into the future.</p>
<p>Gold prices were subdued for a long time and a lot of companies were in severe distress for a long time. That they are going into distress now does not mean that a bounce is imminent. Though it does feel like gold and silver are in the final throws of capitulation.</p>
<p>It seems like we continue to find more oil and gas as prices continue to rise. Gold does not appear to be the same. I have to wonder what the chances are of finding any new gold deposits. </p>
<p>I saw a CNBC special on gold in which the South African miners had to go over three miles into the earth to find the gold.</p>
<p>The major problems for the South African “deep” mines is that you can’t stop production. You have to send air down there and continually pump out water. If you stop pumping out water, they operation will fill up with water.</p>
<p>Oil is affected by geopolitical concerns and we do have some of those right now.</p>
<p>I am surprised NJres did not post an end to second qtr report.</p>
<p>[For</a> stocks, a good first half is tough to match](<a href=“For stocks, a good first half is tough to match”>For stocks, a good first half is tough to match)</p>