<p>My experience in these things is a bit out-of-date, but not completely irrelevant.</p>
<p>I’m not surprised to hear of people getting calls occasionally attempting to change their allocations by their firms. I’m aware of one firm whose brokers were so in charge of what went on at the firm that the internal syndicate desk had to run their own “short” position on offerings to protect themselves from their brokers “giving stock back” to the desk post-deal. And I think its unfortunately common for some brokers to move allocations around retroactively to favored customers. Not good stuff.</p>
<p>I don’t think that legally the sale is confirmable until a final prospectus is available. These don’t usually get produced until overnight after the pricing (you’re at the printer until 5AM), and aren’t available for distribution until about the time the first trade occurs. So theoretically, you could get the final prospectus and cancel your order. (This virtually never happens, partly because people don’t know they could do it, and partly because if you do it, you won’t ever get allocated any stock in a desirable offering.)</p>
<p>Naturally, what the company and wall street firms are shooting for is to have everything nailed down the night of the pricing, and for everyone to know what they are expecting to get, and to go forward that way. Sometimes, though, an investor might decide, when he hears the pricing, that he wants somewhat more or less of the deal. If it happens to be calpers, the underwriters may accommodate the request and re-allocate someone else (or eat the cost themselves, or re-allocate to their retail investors). The point is that the situation has the potential for more fluidity in it that would appear to the outside observer.</p>
<p>Chegg, a college online textbook rental company, is an example of a dud IPO debut so far. IPO price was $12.50. CHGG is now trading at 10.16, so buy the dip guys!</p>
<p>This is the whole point of getting the lead manager position. In the institutional pot, when Fidleity, Vanguard, Calpers, etc, etc, call the manager to let him know which firms will be designate to split their commission, they are all keenly aware that if they don’t treat Goldman nicely in the designations, they will not be treated well in the next offering (ipo or not).</p>
<p>Question for you investment gurus. Apple’s dividend payout was today (don’t see it in my Vanguard account yet). Does that mean I could sell my stock tomorrow, and still get the dividend, whether or not they have posted it to my account yet?</p>
<p>busdriver, before a dividend is paid, there is an “ex-dividend” date – usually about 2 or 3 weeks ahead of the actual payment date. Stockholders who acquire a stock on or after that date will not get the next dividend. Apple’s ex-dividend date was 11/6 – so basically if you owned your stock the day before - 11/5 – you are entitled to the dividend. It doesn’t matter if you sell the stock after the ex-dividend date or not, you’ll still receive the payment from when you did own it. The actual date of the scheduled payment is not important (except for your own tracking purposes). </p>
<p>Thanks for the info, calmom. I figured out why I didn’t see it in my account. I was looking for cash, and instead, they reinvested it as a fractional share. I’d forgotten I’d put reinvest as an option. Whoopee, 0.029 fractional share! Hey, 15 bucks is something.</p>
<p>I’ve never liked small energy companies as investments. Speculative is the right word, but you have no idea how speculative all of these things are. The ones who do grow usually do so by touting the stock up, and using it to make acquisitions rather than discovering the next Spindletop field. Domestic energy is so competitive and picked over that its very difficult for smaller companies to actually add value. My 2 cents, but it comes from some direct experience with companies like this. They seem to specialize in secondary and tertiary recovery plays, which require increasing energy prices to work out best. Prices seem to be under downward pressure, IMO, rather than likely to increase sharply. </p>
<p>I’m looking more and more to the Buffett-type stuff as core investments. Exxon (announced recently) is a classic example. They have critical mass (!) and market power if anyone has it. They are conservatively financed, and they trade at about 10x earnings, so the price isn’t demanding that they grow at double digits in order to get a decent return. Other stuff I like are things like Smuckers, or Costco if you want something with more growth prospects and a little more risk (if they don’t grow fast enough).</p>
<p>That’s good stuff dadx. I am worried that oil prices may crash if Iran starts acting like it gives a crap about its people and sanctions against it are reduced. On the other hand, Iranian leaders are so devoted to being macho idiots regardless of the economy that the sanctions will probably never be dropped. My indicators keep giving me buy signals on WTI, so it be the case that oil may bottom in the high eighties.</p>
<p>I have learned the hard way that I am better off being a stick to the system through thick and thin guy. Nonetheless, there are two factoids that make me uneasy about the intermediate term future of the U.S. stock market.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>The CAPE of U.S. stocks is really elevated, both on an absolute and a relative basis.</p></li>
<li><p>The divergence between the performance of stocks and REITs at least superficially looks a lot like 1998-1999.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>“1. The CAPE of U.S. stocks is really elevated, both on an absolute and a relative basis.”</p>
<p>The CAPE is a 10 year average. It is getting to the level that it was between 1995 - 2000 and 2003 - 2007. What happened to the market over those time periods? They went up and up a lot.</p>
<p>It is a single metric that doesn’t appear to correlate very well to short or intermediate term performance. Shiller himself has said that the market is not particularly expensive. It is not wise to make investment decisions based on 10 year time periods and go to sleep.</p>
<p>While I think we may have a different definition of intermediate term, I don’t disagree with your basic point about relying on one metric. There is, however, research that suggests that rotating among countries based upon relative CAPE can generate significant alpha.</p>
<p>Have any of you guys been watching bitcoin the last few days? The volatility in exchange values on Mt. Gox has been hilarious. [url=<a href=“bitcoinity.org/markets”>bitcoinity.org/markets]This[/url</a>] is a good tracker for those that haven’t seen much of it.</p>
<p>Two years ago a bitcoin was worth around $3. Today it’s going for ~$800. Best part is you could have actually gotten the BTC risk free. Just needed to set up your PC to do some mining while you weren’t using it.</p>
<p>Revisiting my tout of Smuckers above,(just before it loses 5% in a single day!!), they are forecasting down revenue for next year. One of the reasons that QE hasn’t triggered consumer inflation is that we’re stlii leaning against deflationary forces, IMO.</p>
<p>As far as market valuation goes, I think its instructive to look at the historical relationship between market P/E and the 10 year yield. If people (the market) thought the 10 year yield was going to stay at 2.5-3.0, the market multiple would rise. I think the market is trading as though the 10 year is going back to the 4% range. If that expectation is purged over time, then the market is going even higher, even with low single digit revenue growth.</p>